Pooled Prediction of the Individual and Combined Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Crop Yields in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Junjie1,3; Liu, Yujie1,3; Chen, Jie2; Shi, Zhaoyang1,3; Huang, Shuyuan1,3; Zhang, Ermei1,3; Pan, Tao1,3 |
| 刊名 | AGRONOMY-BASEL
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-09-30 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:10页码:2319 |
| 关键词 | extreme climate events crop yields pooled prediction CMIP6 vulnerability curve assessment |
| DOI | 10.3390/agronomy15102319 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The increasing frequency of extreme climate events (ECEs) is expected to significantly affect crop yields in the future, threatening regional and global food security. However, uncertainties in yield projections persist due to regional variability, model differences, and scenario assumptions. Leveraging historical agricultural disaster and meteorological data from China (1995-2014), this study employs the vulnerability curve assessment to determine the most appropriate models for assessing crop yields affected by different ECEs (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme low temperature, and extreme wind) across six regions. By integrating multi-model and multi-scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) future climate data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we conducted pooled prediction of the individual and combined impacts of different ECEs on crop yields for the near-term (2020-2040) and mid-term (2041-2060). The median of multi-model prediction of crop yield reductions in China was -16.0% (range: -32.5% to -2.6%), with more severe losses in Northeast, Northwest, and North China, particularly under higher radiative forcing scenarios. Drought is the most destructive of the four types of ECEs. These results will aid decision-makers in identifying high-risk zones for crop yields affected by ECEs and provide a scientific basis for the developing targeted adaptation strategies in various regions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WHEAT YIELDS ; MANAGEMENT ; DISASTERS ; CMIP5 ; MODEL ; HEAT ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Plant Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001602248600001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/217796]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yujie |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 2.Shanghai Ocean Univ, Coll Oceanog & Ecol Sci, Shanghai 201306, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Junjie,Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie,et al. Pooled Prediction of the Individual and Combined Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Crop Yields in China[J]. AGRONOMY-BASEL,2025,15(10):2319. |
| APA | Liu, Junjie.,Liu, Yujie.,Chen, Jie.,Shi, Zhaoyang.,Huang, Shuyuan.,...&Pan, Tao.(2025).Pooled Prediction of the Individual and Combined Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Crop Yields in China.AGRONOMY-BASEL,15(10),2319. |
| MLA | Liu, Junjie,et al."Pooled Prediction of the Individual and Combined Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Crop Yields in China".AGRONOMY-BASEL 15.10(2025):2319. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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