Six decades of land use patterns on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains: spatio-temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Shihao1,2; Song, Wei1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-12-10 |
| 卷号 | 535页码:147101 |
| 关键词 | Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) Cropland expansion Machine learning PLUS model China |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147101 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Land use/cover change (LUCC) has a significant impact on global environmental change. However, long-term spatiotemporal analyses, especially in arid regions, remain constrained by scarce pre-1980s remote sensing data, hindering our understanding of long-term LUCC dynamics. To address this gap, this study integrated digitized historical land use maps with multi-temporal remote sensing data to examine the six-decade (1963-2020) LUCC dynamics on the northern slope of the Tianshan mountain region in Xinjiang, China, an arid region. Employing the XGBoost SHAP and PLUS models, this study explored LUCC spatiotemporal patterns, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios. The key findings are as follows: (1) Over 60 years, all land use types, except unused land, expanded continuously. Cropland expansion exhibited distinct phase characteristics: it was fastest in 1963-1980 (101.47 %, mainly converted from grassland and unused land), slowed to 0.64 % in 1980-2000, and then accelerated to 45.39 % in 2000-2020. (2) The driving mechanisms of cropland expansion show clear temporal variability. Population density remained dominant; elevation was key in 1963 (positive at 500-2000 m, inhibitory above 2000 m); climatic factors prevailed in 1980-2000; GDP became the second driver by 2020. Strong interactions like precipitation x population density (0.71 in 1963) and temperature x precipitation (0.40 in 2020) shaped patterns. Moreover, interactions between factors collectively shaped cropland expansion patterns, with some factors exhibiting threshold effects. (3) Future scenario simulations (to 2035) indicated that the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) yielded the highest cropland proportion (12.93 %) and the largest expansion scale, while the Natural Increase Scenario (ND) and Economic Development Scenario (ED) showed similar cropland expansion magnitudes (8572.25 km2 and 8578 km2, respectively). |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EARTH SYSTEM ; XINJIANG ; AREA ; CHINA ; BASIN |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001630143200014 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219452]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Song, Wei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Shandong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Tai An 271018, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Shihao,Song, Wei. Six decades of land use patterns on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains: spatio-temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2025,535:147101. |
| APA | Liu, Shihao,&Song, Wei.(2025).Six decades of land use patterns on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains: spatio-temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,535,147101. |
| MLA | Liu, Shihao,et al."Six decades of land use patterns on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains: spatio-temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 535(2025):147101. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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