Spatiotemporal variability and multidimensional driving mechanisms of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Poyang Lake basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tu, Guanyu1,2,4; Lu, Qing2,4; Zhang, Fuqing2; Xia, Yuanping2; Liao, Jiajing2,4; Hong, Qingwen2,4; You, Xiaoye2,4; Chen, Wenbo2,4; Zhao, Dongsheng3; Yan, Bing1 |
| 刊名 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 336页码:108887 |
| 关键词 | Drought-flood abrupt alternation Compound extreme events Spatiotemporal evolution Interpretable response mechanisms Poyang Lake Basin |
| ISSN号 | 0169-8095 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108887 |
| 产权排序 | 4 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change and anthropogenic activities are intensifying drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), threatening water security and ecological resilience. Using the Multi-scale Standardized DFAA Index (MSDFAI), we identify DFAA events from 1962 to 2022 and integrate Mann-Kendall trend tests, continuous wavelet transform, XGBoost-SHAP interpretable machine learning, Generalized Additive Models, and teleconnection analysis to unravel spatiotemporal dynamics and nonlinear drivers. Results show that drought-to-flood (DTF) events have shifted from weakening to strengthening, while flood-to-drought (FTD) events rose then declined; both exhibit persistent hotspots in northern and central-eastern PLB. FTD dominates 6-32-year cycles, whereas DTF is confined to 6-24 years. Soil moisture and precipitation are primary climatic drivers, with topography modulating hydrological responses. Impervious surface area and cropland proportion exhibit multi-threshold effects, with DFAA risk surging beyond critical urbanization levels. MSDFAI correlates negatively with ENSO indices (SOI, NINO3.4) and positively with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), confirming their role as dominant teleconnection controls. This study establishes an integrated analytical framework that combines DFAA detection, extreme sequence analysis, and interpretable machine learning to uncover nonlinear response patterns and threshold-dependent mechanisms underlying drought-flood abrupt alternation dynamics in the PLB. This approach advances mechanistic understanding of compound hydroclimatic extremes in monsoon regions and provides a robust basis for adaptive management. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001706204900001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221174]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Lu, Qing; Yan, Bing |
| 作者单位 | 1.Jiangxi Acad Sci, Inst Energy Res, Nanchang, Peoples R China; 2.East China Univ Technol, Sch Surveying & Geoinformat Engn, Nanchang, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.East China Univ Technol, Jiangxi Key Lab Watershed Ecol Proc & Informat, Nanchang, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tu, Guanyu,Lu, Qing,Zhang, Fuqing,et al. Spatiotemporal variability and multidimensional driving mechanisms of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Poyang Lake basin[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2026,336:108887. |
| APA | Tu, Guanyu.,Lu, Qing.,Zhang, Fuqing.,Xia, Yuanping.,Liao, Jiajing.,...&Yan, Bing.(2026).Spatiotemporal variability and multidimensional driving mechanisms of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Poyang Lake basin.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,336,108887. |
| MLA | Tu, Guanyu,et al."Spatiotemporal variability and multidimensional driving mechanisms of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Poyang Lake basin".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 336(2026):108887. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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