Preferential encroachment of high-quality cropland by urban expansion across China: Past trends and future projections
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sheng, Shuangqing1,2; Song, Wei2 |
| 刊名 | HABITAT INTERNATIONAL
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026 |
| 卷号 | 167页码:103655 |
| 关键词 | Urban expansion High-quality cropland Consumption preference Markov-FLUS GMOP-LINGO Land-use scenario modeling Food security |
| ISSN号 | 0197-3975 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103655 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The reduction of high-quality cropland poses a more severe threat to food security (FS) than that of ordinary cropland. However, large-scale quantitative assessments of the impact of urban expansion on high-quality cropland is insufficient. This study introduces the concept of consumption preference, defined as the propensity of urban land to preferentially occupy high-quality cropland during expansion, and develops a county-level indicator of high-quality cropland consumption (IHC) preference to systematically analyze trends in urban land occupation from 1980 to 2050 and project future scenarios. The main findings are as follows: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, China's high-quality cropland declined by 11.56 %, with its proportion decreasing from 58.01 % to 50.97 %, whereas the total cropland area remained generally stable (increasing by 0.65 %) but exhibited a substitution pattern whereby low-quality cropland compensated for high-quality losses. (2) The proportion of counties with considerable IHC increased by 30.03 % from 1980 to 2010, then declined by 3.13 % from 2010 to 2020. Spatially, the central region exhibited the highest proportion (49.61 %), whereas the Northeast had the lowest (19.24 %). (3) Scenario simulations indicate that by 2035, cropland area is projected to increase by 0.54 %, 20.00 %, 20.00 %, and 21.32 % under the Business-as-Usual (BAU), Economic Development (ED), Ecological Protection (EP), and FS scenarios, respectively; by 2050, the increases will reach 1.22 %, 39.74 %, 31.21 %, and 36.42 %, respectively. (4) From 2035 to 2050, the proportion of counties with considerable IHC shows a declining trend across all scenarios, with average annual decreases of 3.82 % and 1.01 % (BAU), 1.14 % and 0.61 % (ED), 1.79 % and 2.17 % (EP), and 1.07 % and 0.93 % (FS). Overall, although the trend of preferential occupation of high-quality cropland by urban land is gradually moderating, the Northeast region continues to experience substantial risks under all scenarios, highlighting the urgency of region-specific protection strategies. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | LAND-USE ; PRODUCTIVITY ; PATTERNS ; DATASET ; IMPACT ; YIELD |
| WOS研究方向 | Development Studies ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001723204700001 |
| 出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221360]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Song, Wei |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Agr Univ, Coll Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A,Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sheng, Shuangqing,Song, Wei. Preferential encroachment of high-quality cropland by urban expansion across China: Past trends and future projections[J]. HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,2026,167:103655. |
| APA | Sheng, Shuangqing,&Song, Wei.(2026).Preferential encroachment of high-quality cropland by urban expansion across China: Past trends and future projections.HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,167,103655. |
| MLA | Sheng, Shuangqing,et al."Preferential encroachment of high-quality cropland by urban expansion across China: Past trends and future projections".HABITAT INTERNATIONAL 167(2026):103655. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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