Groundwater depletion in China's Granary: The unintended consequences of cropping pattern shifts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Shang, Yiqun1,2; Dong, Jinwei1,3; Fu, Ping2; You, Nanshan1; Zhang, Xi1; Di, Yuanyuan1,2; Zhou, Yan4; Chen, Xi1,3; Li, Zhichao1; Zheng, Xinqi5 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 662页码:134012 |
| 关键词 | Cropping pattern shifts (CPS) Groundwater storage (GWS) Counterfactual scenario analysis Northeast China (NEC) Partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134012 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Groundwater storage (GWS) depletion poses a growing concern for Northeast China (NEC), one of the nation's major grain-producing regions, with significant implications for regional food security. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of this decline and identifying its primary drivers are critical for sustainable water management. While climatic factors such as rainfall are well-documented drivers, the role of human-induced factors, particularly increased irrigation driven by cropping pattern shifts (CPS), remains underexplored. Using trend analysis, counterfactual scenario analysis, and partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), this study reveals a statistically significant GWS decline of 0.40 cm/yr from 2002 to 2023. This decline is primarily driven by the conversion of upland crops like soybean to water-intensive corn and paddy rice, as these shifts have increased irrigation water demand by 1.19 x 109 m3/yr. The PLS-SEM analysis further confirms a significant causal link between CPS and GWS reduction (Total Effects =-0.31), highlighting the pivotal impact of expanding water-intensive crops. These findings call for integrated strategies to balance food security with groundwater sustainability, advancing synergies between Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 6. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WATER STORAGE ; NEXUS |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001552164000001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215585]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Dong, Jinwei; Zhang, Xi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Nottingham Ningbo China, Fac Sci & Engn, Ningbo 315100, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 4.Henan Univ, Coll Geog & Environm Sci, Kaifeng 475004, Peoples R China; 5.China Univ Geosci, Sch Informat Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shang, Yiqun,Dong, Jinwei,Fu, Ping,et al. Groundwater depletion in China's Granary: The unintended consequences of cropping pattern shifts[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2025,662:134012. |
| APA | Shang, Yiqun.,Dong, Jinwei.,Fu, Ping.,You, Nanshan.,Zhang, Xi.,...&Zheng, Xinqi.(2025).Groundwater depletion in China's Granary: The unintended consequences of cropping pattern shifts.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,662,134012. |
| MLA | Shang, Yiqun,et al."Groundwater depletion in China's Granary: The unintended consequences of cropping pattern shifts".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 662(2025):134012. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。