Scenario-based simulation of future photovoltaic land expansion in China: Balancing energy demands and ecological conservation
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jiang, Luguang1,2; Liu, Ye1; Yang, Liwen1,2 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 117页码:108203 |
| 关键词 | Photovoltaic land Landsat-8 data Random Forest Spatiotemporal variation Driving factors Spatial simulation |
| ISSN号 | 0195-9255 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108203 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | China leads the world in photovoltaic (PV) capacity, with its rapid expansion attracting global attention. However, future growth must reconcile the competing demands for energy production and ecological conservation. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and future expansion of PV land in China using Landsat imagery (2007-2023) and the CLUMondo model. By 2023, China's PV area covered 7716.13 km(2), with six northwestern provinces accounting for 47.06 % of the total deployment. The analysis revealed a rapid expansion post-2015, with the PV area doubling during 2020-2023, and distinct eastward (quantity) and westward (area) centroid shifts. Photovoltaic land is predominantly flat terrain (<2.5 degrees slope) with a moderate climate (8-16 degrees C, <800 mm precipitation). While there is a strong preference for proximity to infrastructure, these locations often have a suboptimal alignment with solar resources. Scenario simulations revealed contrasting development pathways. Under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, expansion would be concentrated in eastern agricultural zones (North China Plain, Yangtze Basin), potentially achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2047 but exacerbating land-use conflicts. The Carbon Neutrality scenario redirected growth to ecologically suitable regions (the northwestern desert and grassland regions), reducing the pressure on agriculture in the east and promoting PV+ synergies. By 2060, these pathways would yield 104,560.87 km(2) (BAU) versus 57,137.52 km(2) (Carbon Neutrality) of PV coverage, with the latter demonstrating a better alignment with ecological constraints. These findings provide valuable insights for refining China's PV deployment strategy, aiming to balance renewable energy targets with ecological sustainability and land resource efficiency. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | SOLAR-ENERGY ; SYSTEMS ; PANELS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001595110200001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/217792]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Jiang, Luguang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiang, Luguang,Liu, Ye,Yang, Liwen. Scenario-based simulation of future photovoltaic land expansion in China: Balancing energy demands and ecological conservation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW,2026,117:108203. |
| APA | Jiang, Luguang,Liu, Ye,&Yang, Liwen.(2026).Scenario-based simulation of future photovoltaic land expansion in China: Balancing energy demands and ecological conservation.ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW,117,108203. |
| MLA | Jiang, Luguang,et al."Scenario-based simulation of future photovoltaic land expansion in China: Balancing energy demands and ecological conservation".ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW 117(2026):108203. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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