Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Su, Yinghui1; Wu, Ruoxuan1; Liu, Pengfei1; Li, Zhichao2; Pu, Juan1; Wang, Lu1 |
| 刊名 | ONE HEALTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 22页码:101322 |
| 关键词 | El Nino-southern oscillation Multivariate ENSO index H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza Generalized additive models Climate-informed early warning One Health surveillance |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101322 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly of the H5 subtype, remains a persistent threat to poultry, wildlife, and public health across Asia. This study quantifies the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as the primary predictor, on the climate-driven dynamics of H5 HPAI through region- and host-stratified generalized additive models (GAMs). Seven region-host strata across Asia were modeled separately, revealing pronounced heterogeneity in event frequency. A clear negative correlation with MEI was identified in domestic poultry across East and South Asia, where higher MEI values, corresponding to El Nino conditions, were linked to reduced event frequencies. In contrast, wild bird populations in East and South Asia displayed irregular, multimodal response patterns to MEI, suggesting phase-specific sensitivities to climate variability. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was further employed to forecast MEI trends, which were then incorporated into the GAMs to predict event dynamics. The forecasts highlighted continued epidemic pressure in East Asia's wild birds, in contrast to stable or declining trends elsewhere. Given the zoonotic potential of H5 viruses, these climate-informed risk forecasts could help inform timely interventions to prevent animal-to-human transmission and support integrated One Health preparedness frameworks. This integrative statistical-deep learning framework offers valuable support for short-term early warning and regionally targeted prevention strategies for H5 HPAI preparedness across Asia. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; RISK ; INFECTION |
| WOS研究方向 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001665639100001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219606]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Lu |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Agr Univ, Coll Vet Med, State Key Lab Vet Publ Hlth & Safety, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China; 2.Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Resource Use & Environm Remediat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Su, Yinghui,Wu, Ruoxuan,Liu, Pengfei,et al. Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts[J]. ONE HEALTH,2026,22:101322. |
| APA | Su, Yinghui,Wu, Ruoxuan,Liu, Pengfei,Li, Zhichao,Pu, Juan,&Wang, Lu.(2026).Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts.ONE HEALTH,22,101322. |
| MLA | Su, Yinghui,et al."Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts".ONE HEALTH 22(2026):101322. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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