Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross-Scale Perspectives
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Lina1; Zhang, Ping1,6,7,8; Qi, Yuting1; Liu, Jinbao7; Huang, Yue9; Liu, Jiexuan1; Hou, Kang1; Pan, Ying2; Liu, Wenping3; Li, Xiang4 |
| 刊名 | LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-10 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | climate change cross-scale uncertainty ecosystem services value future scenarios land use change |
| ISSN号 | 1085-3278 |
| DOI | 10.1002/ldr.70490 |
| 产权排序 | 6 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Accurately predicting future land use dynamics and their impacts on ecosystem service value (ESV) is a critical prerequisite for achieving regional sustainable development and optimizing territorial spatial layout. This study proposed an innovative assessment framework integrating system dynamics (SD), mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA), and map comparison statistic (MCS) methods, overcoming the limitations of traditional models in representing mixed land use structure and continuous dynamic changes. It systematically simulated the evolution of land use and ESV under various climate and socioeconomic (SSP-RCP) scenarios and, for the first time, evaluated the uncertainty of ESV across different scenarios and spatial scales. The spatial pattern of ESV exhibited a distribution characterized by low center-high periphery, with the forested northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains serving as a core ecological barrier. Between 2020 and 2080, land use change generally exerted a negative influence on ESV, with the intensity of impact following the order of SSP126 > SSP245 > SSP585 under development pathways. Uncertainty increased with decreasing spatial scale, peaking at the grid scale; scenario-based uncertainty exceeded interannual variability and intensified over longer time periods. The uncertainty associated with ESV responses to land use change demonstrated significant local heterogeneity and scale dependence, while maintaining consistency across scales. We recommend that territorial spatial planning should adopt a low-carbon ecological orientation, with systematic integration of ecological conservation objectives into decision-making processes to mitigate the potential risks of high-carbon pathways. Concurrently, a comprehensive system for preventing and controlling land degradation should be established to enhance the synergistic maintenance of ecological land structure and function, effectively curbing cropland loss and the fragmentation of ecological spaces, thereby safeguarding territorial system stability and ecological security. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CHINA |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001686747000001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/220901]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Ping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Xian Polytech Univ, Sch Environm & Chem Engn, Xian, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Hort & Forestry Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China; 4.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Landscape Architecture & Art, Xian, Peoples R China; 5.China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Wuhan, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecoenvironm Sci, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Degraded & Unused Land Consolidat Engn, Xian, Peoples R China; 8.Xian Key Lab Terr Spatial Informat, Xian, Peoples R China; 9.Xian Inst Prospecting & Mapping, Xian, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Lina,Zhang, Ping,Qi, Yuting,et al. Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross-Scale Perspectives[J]. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,2026,N/A. |
| APA | Sun, Lina.,Zhang, Ping.,Qi, Yuting.,Liu, Jinbao.,Huang, Yue.,...&Zou, Tingting.(2026).Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross-Scale Perspectives.LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,N/A. |
| MLA | Sun, Lina,et al."Discerning Uncertainties in the Implications of Future Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Values Under Climate Change and Development Patterns: Different Scenarios and Cross-Scale Perspectives".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT N/A(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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