Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ouyang, Xin1,6,7; Liu, Litao1,7; Liu, Qiance6; Chen, Wu5; Wang, Chao4; Pang, Xun3; He, Canfei6; Liu, Gang2,6 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026 |
| 卷号 | 29页码:100654 |
| 关键词 | Cobalt Material flow analysis Supply chain Multilayer network Shock propagation |
| ISSN号 | 2666-4984 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ese.2025.100654 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The global transition to low-carbon technologies hinges on secure supplies of critical minerals like cobalt, yet interconnected supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and frequent external disruptions. Existing risk assessments often treat commodities in isolation, overlooking the upstream-downstream dependencies that amplify cascading failures. Here we show systemic risks in global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019 across 230 countries and regions by integrating trade-linked material flow analysis with a multilayer shock propagation model. Our results reveal that disruptions propagate through alternating horizontal-vertical and direct-indirect pathways, with risk concentrating at the mining stage but accumulating predominantly in refining-manufacturing bridges. These cascades yield abrupt nonlinear failures and an avalanche network four times denser than the underlying physical supply chain. Nations with low systemic fragility but high exposure rate-such as Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico-are particularly susceptible to common random disruptions and lack resilience or effective response. Over the past two decades, global systemic risks have followed a volatile but upward trend. These findings highlight that national mitigation strategies are necessary but insufficient; achieving resilience requires stage-aware, system-level coordination and multilateral cooperation. (c) 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, Harbin Institute of Technology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | METALS ; CRITICALITY ; MINERALS ; ALUMINUM ; STOCKS ; FLOWS |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001664262500001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221061]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Litao; Liu, Gang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Peking Univ, Inst Carbon Neutral, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 3.Peking Univ, Sch Int Studies, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; 4.Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Green Technol, SDU Life Cycle Engn, DK-5220 Odense, Denmark; 6.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ouyang, Xin,Liu, Litao,Liu, Qiance,et al. Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY,2026,29:100654. |
| APA | Ouyang, Xin.,Liu, Litao.,Liu, Qiance.,Chen, Wu.,Wang, Chao.,...&Liu, Gang.(2026).Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY,29,100654. |
| MLA | Ouyang, Xin,et al."Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY 29(2026):100654. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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