Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Zhe2,3; Zhao, Jianjun2,3; Zhang, Hongyan2,3; Wang, Yeqiao4; Fan, Liangxian5; Zhang, Zhengxiang2,3; Guo, Xiaoyi2,3; Ren, Zhoupeng6; Xiong, Tao7; Du, Wala1 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-08-11 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:8页码:e2024EF005622 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2024ef005622; 10.1029/2024EF005622 |
| 产权排序 | 5 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The impact of global climate change on ecosystems has become increasingly pronounced, particularly with global warming leading to the earlier of the Start of the Growing Season (SOS). However, changes in SOS under future climate scenarios remain unclear. Therefore, this study uses remote sensing-based SOS data sets and bio-climatic variables to develop pixel-level SOS simulation models through machine learning methods. Future SOS predictions for boreal forest regions are made using climate data from four emission scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. The results show that two machine learning models exhibit good simulation performance across the study area, with the RMSE for most pixels controlled within 9 days. Furthermore, predictions of future SOS based on these two models suggest that under all four emission scenarios, the SOS in boreal forest regions shows a significant advancing trend. Notably, as emission levels increase, the advancing trend in SOS becomes more pronounced. However, there are variations in the trends observed for different vegetation types. Our findings emphasize that the advancing trend in SOS differs under various emission scenarios and exhibits distinct vegetation type-specific and spatial distribution patterns. These changes will have profound implications for biodiversity and ecosystem stability. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VEGETATION PHENOLOGY ; TIME-SERIES ; SPRING PHENOLOGY ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; BUD-BURST ; SATELLITE ; MODEL ; TEMPERATURE ; RESPONSES |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001547582800001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215552]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Jianjun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Inst Grassland Res CAAS, Hohhot, Peoples R China; 2.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Geog Proc & Ecol Secur Changbai Mt, Minist Educ, Changchun, Peoples R China; 3.Northeast Normal Univ, Urban Remote Sensing Applicat Innovat Ctr, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Rhode Isl, Dept Nat Resources Sci, Kingston, RI USA; 5.Hokkaido Univ, Grad Sch Global Food Resources, Sapporo, Japan; 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Peking Univ, Inst Remote Sensing & GIS, Beijing, Peoples R China; 8.Shanghai Snowlake Technol Co Ltd, Shanghai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Zhe,Zhao, Jianjun,Zhang, Hongyan,et al. Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2025,13(8):e2024EF005622. |
| APA | Sun, Zhe.,Zhao, Jianjun.,Zhang, Hongyan.,Wang, Yeqiao.,Fan, Liangxian.,...&Deng, Mingyang.(2025).Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios.EARTHS FUTURE,13(8),e2024EF005622. |
| MLA | Sun, Zhe,et al."Predicting the Start of the Growing Season in Boreal Forest Under High and Low Emission Scenarios".EARTHS FUTURE 13.8(2025):e2024EF005622. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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