Modeling cascading risk diffusion in global container shipping network under dynamic flow reassignment
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xu, Yang2,3; Peng, Peng2,3; Claramunt, Christophe2,4; Xie, Wenxin2,3; Lu, Feng1,2,3,5 |
| 刊名 | RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026 |
| 卷号 | 265页码:111530 |
| 关键词 | Global container shipping network Cascading failure Vessel trajectory data Shipping flow reassignment Maritime safety |
| ISSN号 | 0951-8320 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111530 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Unexpected port disruptions, caused by severe congestion or geopolitical conflicts, can lead to reassignment of shipping flows and trigger cascading hazards across the Global Container Shipping Network (GCSN), with farreaching socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanisms of such cascading risk propagation requires accurate simulation of dynamic flow reassignment and the development of a tailored diffusion model for maritime scenarios. This research introduces a novel cascading modeling framework that captures port-level dynamic shipping flow reassignment and assesses cascading failure diffusion in the GCSN. Using massive container vessel trajectory data, we design a directed and weighted GCSN, identify alternative ports for disrupted nodes through a combination of network topology analysis and geographic nearest-neighbor search, and refine port selection with a nonlinear trajectory cost function incorporating maritime distance, vessel load differences, and port size. Cascading failure is simulated by integrating the Motter-Lai load-capacity model with the dynamic reassignment process, and three maritime-specific vulnerability indicators are proposed to evaluate network resilience. The findings show that limiting port loads to 60 % of capacity or increasing port capacity by 40 to 60 % significantly mitigates cascading risk. It also appears that the European port system is found to be more susceptible to cascading disruptions than its East Asian counterpart. The proposed approach provides actionable insights and risk mitigation strategies for enhancing the resilience of global maritime logistics in the face of unexpected disruptions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | VULNERABILITY ; PORTS ; PERSPECTIVE ; FAILURES |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001546266300001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215593]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Peng, Peng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Naval Acad Res Inst, F-29240 Lanveoc, France; 5.Fuzhou Univ, Acad Digital China, Fuzhou 350002, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Yang,Peng, Peng,Claramunt, Christophe,et al. Modeling cascading risk diffusion in global container shipping network under dynamic flow reassignment[J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,2026,265:111530. |
| APA | Xu, Yang,Peng, Peng,Claramunt, Christophe,Xie, Wenxin,&Lu, Feng.(2026).Modeling cascading risk diffusion in global container shipping network under dynamic flow reassignment.RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,265,111530. |
| MLA | Xu, Yang,et al."Modeling cascading risk diffusion in global container shipping network under dynamic flow reassignment".RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 265(2026):111530. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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