Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wu, Xilin3,4; Wang, Jun2; Ge, Yong1; Lai, Shengjie6,7; Zhang, Die1,5; Ren, Zhoupeng4; Wang, Jianghao3,4 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-08-11 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:1页码:7420 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-025-62871-y |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Anthropogenic climate change is driving summer heat toward more humid conditions, accompanied by more frequent day-night compound heat extremes (high temperatures during both day and night). As the fast-warming and aging continent, Europe faces escalating heat-related health risks. Here, we projected future heat-related mortality in Europe using a distributed lag nonlinear model that incorporates humid heat and compound heat extremes, strengthened by a health risk-based definition of extreme heat and a scenario matrix integrating time-varying adaptation trajectories. Under 2010-2019 adaptation baselines, future heat-related mortality is projected to increase annually by 103.7-135.1 deaths per million people by 2100 across various population-climate scenarios for every degree of global warming, with Western and Eastern Europe suffering the most. If global warming exceeds 2 degrees C, climate change will dominate (84.0-96.8%) projected increase in heat-related mortality. Across all socioeconomic pathways, even a 50% reduction in heat-related relative risk through physiological adaptation will be insufficient to offset the climate change-driven escalation of future heat-related mortality. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACT ; WAVES |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001548644700002 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PORTFOLIO |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215625]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Ge, Yong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Jiangxi Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Poyang Lake Wetland & Watershed Res, Nanchang, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Jiangxi Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Environm, Nanchang, Peoples R China 6.Univ Southampton, Inst Life Sci, Southampton, England; 7.Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, WorldPop, Southampton, England; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Xilin,Wang, Jun,Ge, Yong,et al. Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2025,16(1):7420. |
| APA | Wu, Xilin.,Wang, Jun.,Ge, Yong.,Lai, Shengjie.,Zhang, Die.,...&Wang, Jianghao.(2025).Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,16(1),7420. |
| MLA | Wu, Xilin,et al."Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 16.1(2025):7420. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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