Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000-2030: modelling and prediction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Feng, Yuqing2,3; Wang, Jinfeng2,3; Guo, Naliang3,4; Cai, Yue1; Yin, Qian2; Wu, Shiyong1 |
| 刊名 | BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-11-12 |
| 卷号 | 25期号:1页码:3911 |
| 关键词 | Life expectancy Tree like evolution trajectory Physical and socioeconomic determinants Projection |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12889-025-25201-x |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Background Life expectancy (LE) is one of crucial metrics of human evolution. However, the evolutionary trajectories of LE in different regions of China and the regional inequalities expected in 2030 are still unclear yet. Methods This study collected provincial LE data and relevant explanatory variables for the years of 2000, 2010, 2020 in China. The Geotree method was employed to reconstruct the evolution trajectories of LE, while a multilevel model was used to predict LEs at the provincial levels in the country for the year 2030. Results The LE in China exhibited significant geographical pattern, decreasing from the east to the west of the country. LE increases with socio-economic development but is constrained by the natural environment. The physical limitation to LE is significant in western China but are being alleviated with the development of socio-economic conditions. LE will increase in all provinces by 2030, with the overall LE in China reaching 80.05 years (95% confidence interval: 78.93 similar to 81.28), and regional inequalities will diminish. Conclusions LE is increasing with the improvement of socioeconomic condition over time; the constraints imposed by the natural environment on LE are being overridden with the improvement of socio-economic conditions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; HEALTH ; MORTALITY ; DISEASE ; CITIES ; INEQUALITIES |
| WOS研究方向 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001615554400002 |
| 出版者 | BMC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219494]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jinfeng; Wu, Shiyong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Natl Hlth Commiss, Ctr Hlth Stat & Informat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Yuqing,Wang, Jinfeng,Guo, Naliang,et al. Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000-2030: modelling and prediction[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2025,25(1):3911. |
| APA | Feng, Yuqing,Wang, Jinfeng,Guo, Naliang,Cai, Yue,Yin, Qian,&Wu, Shiyong.(2025).Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000-2030: modelling and prediction.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,25(1),3911. |
| MLA | Feng, Yuqing,et al."Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000-2030: modelling and prediction".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 25.1(2025):3911. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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