Quantifying the impact of ambient temperature on varicella incidence: Evidence from a meta-analysis
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Li1,3; Zhang, Shuai3; Xu, Chengdong4,5; Zhang, Ziyu4,5,6; Zhang, Xiangxue2; Qiao, Jiajun1,3 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 290页码:123448 |
| 关键词 | Varicella Ambient temperature Meta-analysis Environmental epidemiology |
| ISSN号 | 0013-9351 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envres.2025.123448 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Background: Varicella is a significant global health burden, yet the specific impact of ambient temperature on varicella incidence remains insufficiently understood. This study aims to quantify the association between ambient temperature and varicella risk through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of studies from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI databases (up to January 7, 2025). We included studies that assessed temperature effects on varicella incidence and excluded those on animals, serology, reviews, or unpublished data. Using a random-effects model, we pooled relative risks (RRs) for a 1 degrees C increase in ambient temperature and performed heterogeneity assessments (q, tau 2, I2). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted based on climate zone, sex, age group, and methodological adjustments. Publication bias was evaluated via funnel plots and Egger's test, and study quality was assessed according to STROBE guidelines. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD420251003054). Results: From 2389 records screened, 14 studies with approximately 1.4 million varicella cases were included. A 1 degrees C increase in temperature was associated with a 4 % reduction in varicella risk (RR = 0.96; 95 % CI: 0.93-0.98; I2 = 97.6 %; 95 % PI: 0.86-1.07). Subgroup analyses revealed a stronger association in temperate regions (RR = 0.91; 95 % CI: 0.84-0.98) and among school-aged children (RR = 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.91-0.96). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings. Conclusions: This study suggests that higher ambient temperatures are associated with lower varicella incidence, particularly in temperate regions and among school-aged children. These findings provide insight into climatedriven varicella dynamics, particularly in the context of future global warming, and can inform climate-sensitive public health strategies and resource allocation. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CHICKENPOX INCIDENCE ; HETEROGENEITY ; OUTBREAKS ; ZOSTER ; CHINA ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001633599100001 |
| 出版者 | ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219672]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Chengdong; Qiao, Jiajun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Henan Univ, Key Lab Geospatial Technol Middle & Lower Yellow R, Minist Educ, Kaifeng 475004, Peoples R China; 2.Jiangsu Normal Univ, Sch Geog Geomat & Planning, Xuzhou 221116, Peoples R China 3.Henan Univ, Coll Geog Sci, Fac Geog Sci & Engn, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 6.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Li,Zhang, Shuai,Xu, Chengdong,et al. Quantifying the impact of ambient temperature on varicella incidence: Evidence from a meta-analysis[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,2026,290:123448. |
| APA | Wang, Li,Zhang, Shuai,Xu, Chengdong,Zhang, Ziyu,Zhang, Xiangxue,&Qiao, Jiajun.(2026).Quantifying the impact of ambient temperature on varicella incidence: Evidence from a meta-analysis.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,290,123448. |
| MLA | Wang, Li,et al."Quantifying the impact of ambient temperature on varicella incidence: Evidence from a meta-analysis".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 290(2026):123448. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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