Will the typical soums in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia become more overgrazed in the future?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xu, Zengrang1; Wang, Juanle1,5; Davaasuren, Davaadorj3,4; Ochir, Altansukh2,4 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026 |
| 卷号 | 36期号:1页码:236-254 |
| 关键词 | livestock husbandry grassland conservation carrying capacity system dynamics SSP-RCP scenarios Selenge River Basin |
| ISSN号 | 1009-637X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11442-026-2446-4 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The Selenge River Basin (SRB) in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading. The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been documented. This study aims to answer the following questions: Will the typical soums in the SRB become more overgrazed in the future? What optimal strategy should be implemented? Multisource data were integrated and utilized to model the pastoral system of typical soums using a system dynamics approach. Future scenarios under three SSP-RCPs were projected using the model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From upstream to downstream, rational scenarios for pastoral system transferred from SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP2-RCP4.5, which reflect improved productivity at the expense of ecosystem stability. (2) Compared with that during the historical period of 2000-2020, the projected carrying capacity of the soums decreases by 15.2%-37.3%, whereas the number of livestock continues to increase. Consequently, the stocking rate is expected to increase from 0.32-1.16 during 2000-2020 to 1.26-2.02 during 2021-2050, indicating that rangeland will become more overloaded. (3) A livestock reduction strategy based on future livestock stock and grassland carrying capacity scenarios was proposed to maintain a dynamic forage-livestock equilibrium. It is suggested that reducing livestock is a practical option for harmonizing grassland conservation with livestock husbandry development. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | SYSTEMS |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001673292900006 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221060]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Juanle |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Natl Univ Mongolia, Sch Engn & Technol, Dept Environm & Forest Engn, Environm Engn Lab, Ulaanbaatar 14201, Mongolia 3.Natl Univ Mongolia, Sch Art & Sci, Dept Geog, Ulaanbaatar 14201, Mongolia; 4.Natl Univ Mongolia, Inst Sustainable Dev, Ulaanbaatar 14201, Mongolia; 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Zengrang,Wang, Juanle,Davaasuren, Davaadorj,et al. Will the typical soums in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia become more overgrazed in the future?[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2026,36(1):236-254. |
| APA | Xu, Zengrang,Wang, Juanle,Davaasuren, Davaadorj,&Ochir, Altansukh.(2026).Will the typical soums in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia become more overgrazed in the future?.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,36(1),236-254. |
| MLA | Xu, Zengrang,et al."Will the typical soums in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia become more overgrazed in the future?".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 36.1(2026):236-254. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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