Increasing Hourly Population Exposure to Moderate Cold Under Climate Warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhu, Hongzhou5,7; Wang, Yanjiao6; Duan, Jianping6; Xiao, Cunde6; Dong, Buwen9; Li, Zhao-Liang3,8; Guan, Dabo4; Ge, Fei2; Zhang, Haoxin1; Chen, Deliang4 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-23 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | Climate warming Cold stress Hourly population exposure Influenza |
| ISSN号 | 2095-0055 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13753-026-00702-4 |
| 产权排序 | 6 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Although the human health risk from cold stress may be greater than from heat stress, population cold exposure has received little attention compared to heat exposure in the context of climate warming. A particular puzzle is that while the number of cold days has markedly decreased under climate warming, the cold-related influenza positivity rate has substantially increased. Here we reveal global hourly population exposure for different cold categories based on observations and climate model simulations from 1979 to 2100, and explore the potential link between population cold exposure and influenza positivity rate. Our results show that the number of cold hours did not decrease uniformly across all categories under climate warming, but shifted from extreme cold to moderate cold. Global hourly population cold exposure increased substantially from 1979 to 2023 (2.05 & times; 1010 person-hours yr-1), and this trend is expected to persist in the near term with continued population growth. The number of influenza positives and the influenza positivity rate were significantly correlated with hourly population cold exposure. These findings imply a current risk of population cold exposure and emphasize the need for increased attention to this risk. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WINTER MORTALITY ; EXTREME TEMPERATURES ; INFLUENZA INCIDENCE ; BLOOD-PRESSURE ; HEAT ; MODEL ; PATTERNS ; REGIONS ; HEALTH ; TRANSMISSION |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001697266100001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221230]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Duan, Jianping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Meteorol, State Key Lab Severe Weather Meteorol Sci & Techno, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Prov, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 4.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East As, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 6.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Disaster Risk R, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China; 8.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, State Key Lab Efficient Utilizat Arid & Semiarid A, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 9.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, England; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Hongzhou,Wang, Yanjiao,Duan, Jianping,et al. Increasing Hourly Population Exposure to Moderate Cold Under Climate Warming[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE,2026,N/A. |
| APA | Zhu, Hongzhou.,Wang, Yanjiao.,Duan, Jianping.,Xiao, Cunde.,Dong, Buwen.,...&Chen, Deliang.(2026).Increasing Hourly Population Exposure to Moderate Cold Under Climate Warming.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE,N/A. |
| MLA | Zhu, Hongzhou,et al."Increasing Hourly Population Exposure to Moderate Cold Under Climate Warming".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE N/A(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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