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Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Peng, Kun1,3; Zhang, Yongyong1; Tang, Qiuhong1; Zhang, Yongqiang1; Li, Zhanling3; Wang, Guoqing2; Cao, Can1
刊名EARTHS FUTURE
出版日期2025-07-01
卷号13期号:7页码:e2025EF006041
关键词chain transmission effects runoff changes attribution analysis Budyko framework catchment characteristic alterations
DOI10.1029/2025EF006041
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Effect of catchment characteristics (e.g., land use/land cover changes) is increasingly accepted as the main cause of runoff changes, besides direct effects of climate change and human activities. However, previous studies usually attributed this effect to human activities, and ignored the effect of climate changes, namely chain transmission effects via catchment characteristic alterations. This study proposes a novel assessment approach of runoff change to disentangle both direct and chain transmission effects by adopting nonlinear relationships between catchment characteristic parameters and multiple impact factors into the Budyko framework. Eight catchments in the arid and semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid climatic zones are selected as our study area. Results show that runoff in most catchments decreases, while catchment characteristic parameters increase, with slopes of -2.44 to 3.79 mm/year and -0.003 to 0.017/year, respectively. It indicates that more precipitation evaporates than that contributing to runoff due to the catchment characteristic alterations. These changes are the most significant in the semi-humid zone, followed by those in the arid and semi-arid zone. Annual temperature and precipitation, gross domestic product, industrial water use, and population are the main impact factors. The contributions of human activities to runoff changes are usually the largest (i.e., -62.9% to 72.0%), followed by the direct effects of climate change (i.e., -32.6% to 88.0%). The chain transmission effects of climate change are also nonnegligible, with the contributions of -38.3% to 8.2%, particularly in the semi-humid zone. Our study improves the traditional Budyko-based framework for attributing runoff changes and provides scientific support for understanding hydrological cycle change mechanisms in climate-sensitive areas.
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WOS关键词VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; LOESS PLATEAU ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; WATER-BALANCE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; VARIABILITY ; HYDROLOGY ; CHINA ; FLOW ; TEMPERATURE
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001522795000001
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215405]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Zhang, Yongyong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul Eng, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.China Univ Geosci, Sch Water Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Peng, Kun,Zhang, Yongyong,Tang, Qiuhong,et al. Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2025,13(7):e2025EF006041.
APA Peng, Kun.,Zhang, Yongyong.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Zhang, Yongqiang.,Li, Zhanling.,...&Cao, Can.(2025).Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework.EARTHS FUTURE,13(7),e2025EF006041.
MLA Peng, Kun,et al."Decomposing the Effects of Changes in Catchment Characteristics on Runoff Into Chain Transmission Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities Using an Improved Budyko Framework".EARTHS FUTURE 13.7(2025):e2025EF006041.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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