Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China's two-child policy
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ban, Yun-Yun1; Tang, Qiu-Hong1,3; Liu, Xing-Cai1,3; Li, Xiao-Jie1; Clark, Robin2; Ren, Yi-Jia1 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:3页码:606-612 |
| 关键词 | Labor capacity Climate change Heat stress Working-age population Two-child policy |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | China's implemented two-child policy (TCP) was aimed at countering the economic challenges posed by an aging population. However, the impact of climate change on the goal of this policy remains uncertain. This study examines how climate change induced heat stress may impact the productivity of the working-age population, measured as total working hours as a result of the TCP. The TCP is projected to increase total working hours of China by 12%-19% under three scenarios compared to the previous one-child policy during 2071-2100. This increase is completely negated by a 19%-29% decrease in the total working hours induced by reduction in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Specifically, compared to the one-child policy (OCP) in the 2071-2100, the total working hours shows the largest increase of 19% contributed by TCP but it can decrease by 9% if climate change is considered under the SSP370 scenario. Likewise, the TCP benefits can be totally offset by climate change which finally leads to 6% and 11% less than OCP under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Climate change's adverse effects are particularly pronounced (30% or larger decrease in the total working hours under SSP370) in eastern and southern China, which has the most developed economy. Given China's laborintensive economic model, this study underscores the need for urgent mitigation strategies to safeguard the nation's future economic well-being. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | HEAT EXPOSURE ; HEALTH ; PRODUCTIVITY ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001533924800001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215409]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Xing-Cai |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, England 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ban, Yun-Yun,Tang, Qiu-Hong,Liu, Xing-Cai,et al. Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China's two-child policy[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2025,16(3):606-612. |
| APA | Ban, Yun-Yun,Tang, Qiu-Hong,Liu, Xing-Cai,Li, Xiao-Jie,Clark, Robin,&Ren, Yi-Jia.(2025).Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China's two-child policy.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,16(3),606-612. |
| MLA | Ban, Yun-Yun,et al."Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China's two-child policy".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 16.3(2025):606-612. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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