Intensifying propagation from El Nino to regional drought in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Dong, Haixia2; Huang, Shengzhi2,3; Jin, Junliang4,5,6; Shi, Haiyun7; Gu, Xihui8; Huang, Qiang2; Wang, Hao1; Leng, Guoyong9; Du, Meng2; Li, Yifei2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 662页码:133999 |
| 关键词 | Drought propagation Conditional probability Copula Random forest El Nino |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133999 |
| 产权排序 | 9 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Drought is one of the extreme natural disasters threatening global economic development and ecosystem health. In some regions, the occurrence of droughts (or floods) may be associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Nevertheless, the propagation characteristics of El Nino-induced droughts, such as propagation probability and propagation time, remain largely unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, a framework based on copula and conditional probabilities was constructed to explore the propagation characteristics dynamics of El Nino-induced droughts in China. Specifically, propagation probabilities and propagation time of drought triggered by El Nino were identified based on conditional probability. Then, drought propagation dynamics were analyzed through multiscale sliding windows and Mann-Kendall and other trend testing methods. Finally, main drivers of propagation time dynamics were attributed based on random forest method. The results indicated that propagation probability in northwest Inland River basin (ILR), Pearl River basin, southeast Yangtze River basin, and north Yellow River basin are high, reaching up to 0.82. The propagation probability under winter El Nino stress is ranked in descending order as mild drought, severe and extreme drought, and moderate drought. Propagation time is characterized by a regional distribution. The winter El Nino signal propagates to most of northern China the following year and causing drought. The regions with an increasing trend in propagation probability are larger than those with a decreasing trend, and they are mainly distributed in northern China. This reveals that El Nino triggers an increasing trend of drought in China. Propagation time dynamics were dominated by large-scale sea-atmospheric circulation factors (i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation), especially in northwest China. In general, this study sheds new insights into large-scale drought propagation from ocean to land, which is helpful for regional drought forecasting and early warning. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | INDIAN MONSOON ; QUASI-COPULAS ; PRECIPITATION ; ENSO ; NORTH ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; INDEX ; TELECONNECTIONS ; TEMPERATURE |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001545466700001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/215556]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China; 2.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China; 3.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Sch Water Conservancy, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China; 4.Hohai Univ, Natl Key Lab Water Disaster Prevent, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; 5.Yangtze Inst Conservat & Dev, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; 6.Minist Water Resources, Res Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing 210029, Peoples R China; 7.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen Key Lab Precis Measurement & Early Warnin, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China; 8.China Univ Geosci, State Key Lab Geomicrobiol & Environm Changes, Hubei Key Lab Reg Ecol & Environm Change, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China; 9.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dong, Haixia,Huang, Shengzhi,Jin, Junliang,et al. Intensifying propagation from El Nino to regional drought in China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2025,662:133999. |
| APA | Dong, Haixia.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Jin, Junliang.,Shi, Haiyun.,Gu, Xihui.,...&Li, Yifei.(2025).Intensifying propagation from El Nino to regional drought in China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,662,133999. |
| MLA | Dong, Haixia,et al."Intensifying propagation from El Nino to regional drought in China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 662(2025):133999. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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