System dynamics for assessing anthropogenic and climate change impacts on agro-hydrological sustainability, leveraging the newly developed evapotranspiration model. Case study: Qaranqu watershed
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Nourani, Vahid1,2,3; Fathi, Shahin1; Zhang, Yongqiang5; Kantoush, Sameh A.2; Huang, Jinhui Jeanne4 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 62页码:102781 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Land use Evapotranspiration System dynamics Qaranqu watershed |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102781 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Study region: Qaranqu watershed, Iran Study focus: Complex interactions among climate change, anthropogenic activities and water resource management examined via system dynamics and Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) Evapotranspiration (ET) model. New hydrological insights for the region: Through crop pattern modification scenario, variations in vegetation type resulted in 6 and 3.8 million cubic meters per year in available water by PML and PM models, respectively, which is approximately 10 and 2.5 percent higher than the current available water trend due to increase in rainfed wheat areas and in turn, reduction in leaf area index. However, cessation of land development due to high ET in pastures might cause a decrease in available water about 1 million cubic meters in the early years and 18 million cubic meters in the later years, corresponding to 1-27 % of available water compared to the existing trend from 2020 to 2045. Also, cessation of agricultural land development has resulted in decrease in GDP for this sector in contrast to other economic sectors. Given that agricultural sector's investment share regard to total investment has risen to 23 %, its GDP share may be decreased by 12 % until 2045. The shift of this investment to other economic sectors, by 10 and 13 percent in industry and services sectors, respectively, indicates changes in GDP ratio of these sectors to total GDP by 7 and 5 percent until 2045. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; EVAPORATION ; SIMULATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001576958300001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216072]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Nourani, Vahid; Huang, Jinhui Jeanne |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Tabriz, Fac Civil Engn, Ctr Excellence Hydroinformat, Tabriz 5166616471, Iran; 2.Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto 6110011, Japan; 3.World Peace Univ, Sht Kemal Ali Omer St 22 Yenisehir, Mersin, Turkiye 4.Nankai Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Sino Canada Joint R&D Ctr Water & Environm Safety, Tianjin 300071, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nourani, Vahid,Fathi, Shahin,Zhang, Yongqiang,et al. System dynamics for assessing anthropogenic and climate change impacts on agro-hydrological sustainability, leveraging the newly developed evapotranspiration model. Case study: Qaranqu watershed[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2025,62:102781. |
| APA | Nourani, Vahid,Fathi, Shahin,Zhang, Yongqiang,Kantoush, Sameh A.,&Huang, Jinhui Jeanne.(2025).System dynamics for assessing anthropogenic and climate change impacts on agro-hydrological sustainability, leveraging the newly developed evapotranspiration model. Case study: Qaranqu watershed.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,62,102781. |
| MLA | Nourani, Vahid,et al."System dynamics for assessing anthropogenic and climate change impacts on agro-hydrological sustainability, leveraging the newly developed evapotranspiration model. Case study: Qaranqu watershed".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 62(2025):102781. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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