Assessing the Climate and Land Use Impacts on Water Yield in the Upper Yellow River Basin: A Forest-Urbanizing Ecological Hotspot
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Gong, Li1,2; Liang, Kang2 |
| 刊名 | FORESTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-08-11 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:8页码:1304 |
| 关键词 | water yield climate change land use FLUS model InVEST model yellow river basin |
| DOI | 10.3390/f16081304 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding the drivers of water yield (WY) changes in ecologically sensitive, data-scarce watersheds is crucial for sustainable management, particularly in the context of accelerating forest expansion and urbanization. This study focuses on the upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB), a critical headwater region that supplies 60% of the Yellow River's flow and is undergoing rapid land use transitions from 1990 to 2100. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model, we quantify historical (1990-2020) and projected (2025-2100) WY dynamics under three SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). InVEST, a spatially explicit ecohydrological model based on the Budyko framework, estimates WY by balancing precipitation and evapotranspiration. The FLUS model combines cellular automata (CA) with an artificial neural network (ANN)-based suitability evaluation and Markov chain-derived transition probabilities to simulate land-use change under multiple scenarios. Results show that WY increased significantly during the historical period (1990-2020), primarily driven by increased precipitation, with climate change accounting for 94% and land-use change for 6% of the total variation in WY. Under future scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), WY is projected to increase to 217 mm, 206 mm, and 201 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the influence of land-use change is expected to diminish, with its contribution decreasing to 9.1%, 5.7%, and 3.1% under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. This decrease reflects the increasing strength of climate signals (especially extreme precipitation and evaporative demand), which masks the hydrological impacts of land-use transitions. These findings highlight the dominant role of climate change, the scenario-dependent effects of land-use change, and the urgent need for integrated climate-land management strategies in forest-urbanizing watersheds. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | ARID REGION ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW ; HYDROLOGY ; CATCHMENT ; MODEL ; RAINFALL ; COVER ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001558720400001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216101]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liang, Kang |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gong, Li,Liang, Kang. Assessing the Climate and Land Use Impacts on Water Yield in the Upper Yellow River Basin: A Forest-Urbanizing Ecological Hotspot[J]. FORESTS,2025,16(8):1304. |
| APA | Gong, Li,&Liang, Kang.(2025).Assessing the Climate and Land Use Impacts on Water Yield in the Upper Yellow River Basin: A Forest-Urbanizing Ecological Hotspot.FORESTS,16(8),1304. |
| MLA | Gong, Li,et al."Assessing the Climate and Land Use Impacts on Water Yield in the Upper Yellow River Basin: A Forest-Urbanizing Ecological Hotspot".FORESTS 16.8(2025):1304. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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