Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xiao, Feiyan1,2,5; Wu, Yaping4; Wang, Xunming5; Wang, Ping5; Fu, Congsheng3; Zhang, Jing1,2 |
| 刊名 | SUSTAINABILITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-09-02 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:17页码:7901 |
| 关键词 | CMIP6 Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin SWAT plus streamflow hydrological sustainability climate adaptation |
| DOI | 10.3390/su17177901 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Estimating the impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin is vital for ensuring sustainable water resource management and transboundary cooperation across the entire Xingkai Lake Basin, a transboundary lake system shared between China and Russia. In this study, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) were used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) model. Streamflow projections were made for two future periods: the 2040s (2021-2060) and the 2080s (2061-2100). To correct for systematic biases in the GCM outputs, we applied the Delta Change method, which significantly reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in both precipitation and temperature by 3-35%, thereby improving the accuracy of SWAT+ simulations. To better capture inter-model variability and enhance the robustness of streamflow projections, we used the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique to generate a weighted ensemble, which outperformed the simple arithmetic mean by reducing uncertainty across models. Our results indicated that under SSP245, greater increases were projected in annual streamflow as well as in wet and normal-flow seasons (e.g., streamflow in normal-flow season in the 2080s increased by 13.0% under SSP245, compared to 7.0% under SSP585). However, SSP585 produced a much larger relative amplification in the dry season, with percentage changes relative to the historical baseline reaching up to +171.7% in the 2080s, although the corresponding absolute increases remained limited due to the low baseline flow. These findings quantify climate-driven hydrological changes in a cool temperate lake basin by integrating climate projections, hydrological modeling, and ensemble techniques, and highlight their implications for understanding hydrological sustainability under future climate scenarios, providing a critical scientific foundation for developing adaptive, cross-border water management strategies, and for further studies on water resource resilience in transboundary basins. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WATER-RESOURCES ; MODEL ; SIMULATIONS ; IMPACTS |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001570098500001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216162]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Xunming |
| 作者单位 | 1.Hanzhong Sub Ctr Shaanxi Data, Applicat Ctr High Resolut Earth Observat Syst, 1 East Ring Rd, Hanzhong 723001, Peoples R China; 2.Shaanxi Univ Technol, Sch Civil Engn & Architecture, 1 East Ring Rd, Hanzhong 723001, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Key Lab Watershed Geog Sci, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China 4.Yunnan Normal Univ, Fac Geog, Yunnan Key Lab Plateau Geog Proc & Environm Change, Kunming 650500, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiao, Feiyan,Wu, Yaping,Wang, Xunming,et al. Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2025,17(17):7901. |
| APA | Xiao, Feiyan,Wu, Yaping,Wang, Xunming,Wang, Ping,Fu, Congsheng,&Zhang, Jing.(2025).Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective.SUSTAINABILITY,17(17),7901. |
| MLA | Xiao, Feiyan,et al."Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective".SUSTAINABILITY 17.17(2025):7901. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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