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Estimating multi-source input uncertainties and their propagation for integrated water quantity and quality simulations

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Han, Bing1,4; Zhang, Yongyong1; Shao, Quanxi3; Duan, Qingyun2; Gebremedhn, Abrha Ybeyn1
刊名HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
出版日期2025-11-02
卷号N/A
关键词Multi-source input uncertainties propagated uncertainty integrated water system simulations
ISSN号0262-6667
DOI10.1080/02626667.2025.2570849
产权排序1
文献子类Article ; Early Access
英文摘要Uncertainty estimation in integrated dynamic models, especially for water quality simulations, is challenging due to its complexity and limited observations. This study employs variance decomposition analysis (VDA) to estimate multi-source input uncertainties (precipitation, temperature, point source pollution, and social economy) and their propagation for integrated water quantity and quality simulations in the HEQM model. The Zhugan River watershed, a typical agricultural area in southern Huai River, China, was chosen for the case study. Results showed that precipitation is the main source of uncertainty for both runoff and TN load simulations, with contributions of 64.1% and 61.3%, respectively. Temperature is the main direct uncertainty source for TN load simulation (80.3%), along with contributions from point source pollution (15.1%) and social economy (4.6%). Furthermore, 70.7% of TN load simulation uncertainty propagates from upstream runoff simulation. Estimating multi-source input uncertainties and their propagation is essential for improving integrated water system models.
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WOS关键词HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; SYSTEM MODEL ; LARGE RIVERS ; RAINFALL ; RUNOFF ; PERFORMANCE ; OPTIMIZATION ; SENSITIVITY ; CALIBRATION ; COMPLEXITY
WOS研究方向Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001605307900001
出版者TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/217744]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Zhang, Yongyong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, 11 Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
2.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.CSIRO, Australian Resources Res Ctr, Data 61, Kensington, Australia;
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Han, Bing,Zhang, Yongyong,Shao, Quanxi,et al. Estimating multi-source input uncertainties and their propagation for integrated water quantity and quality simulations[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL,2025,N/A.
APA Han, Bing,Zhang, Yongyong,Shao, Quanxi,Duan, Qingyun,&Gebremedhn, Abrha Ybeyn.(2025).Estimating multi-source input uncertainties and their propagation for integrated water quantity and quality simulations.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL,N/A.
MLA Han, Bing,et al."Estimating multi-source input uncertainties and their propagation for integrated water quantity and quality simulations".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL N/A(2025).

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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