Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981-2100
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Bin-Xiao5; Tang, Qiu-Hong6,7; Xu, Xi-Meng6; Sun, Si-Ao1,7; Chen, Deliang4; Luan, Jin-Kai2,3; Ren, Hai-Yi5 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:5页码:974-984 |
| 关键词 | Extreme precipitation CMIP6 multi-model datasets ISIMIP Future projection China |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.005 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) bias-corrected data have been extensively used for climate change impact assessments, despite being derived from only five global climate models (GCMs). This study aims to enhance confidence in its application for projecting future changes in China by evaluating the accuracy of ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data in representing historical precipitation extremes compared to observational records. The findings reveal that the ensemble mean of ISIMIP3b data aligns well with observed precipitation extremes during the historical period (1981-2010), with spatial correlation coefficients ranging from 0.87 to 0.96 and relative errors kept below 5%, affirming its suitability for studying future precipitation patterns. Future projections indicate an increase in heavy precipitation intensity and frequency, along with fewer consecutive dry days (CDD). These changes are more pronounced under higher emission scenarios and over the far-future period (2071-2100) when contrasted with lower emission scenarios and the near-future period (2031-2060). Specifically, by the end of the 21st century under the SSP585 scenario, relative to the 1981-2010 period: CDD is projected to decline by 7.4 d (11.4%); days of heavy precipitation to increase by 2.5 d (15.2%); maximum 5day precipitation to increase by 16.3 mm (21.7%); and simple daily intensity index to increase by 0.7 mm/d (11.6%). A comparative analysis with projections from a broader range of GCMs highlights that the ISIMIP3b data with a small GCM ensemble can effectively capture key aspects of changes in extreme precipitation projections, while acknowledging certain limitations. This study underscores the potential of ISIMIP bias-corrected data to reasonably represent change in precipitation extremes with a reduced GCM ensemble. These findings help to justify the use of ISIMIP3b data with a small GCM ensemble for climate change impact assessment. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; CLIMATE |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001609443700001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/217768]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Tang, Qiu-Hong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Hydrometeorol Disaster Mech & Warning, Minist Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; 4.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 5.Beijing Inst Satellite Informat Engn, State Key Lab Space Informat Syst & Integrated, Beijing 100086, Peoples R China; 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Bin-Xiao,Tang, Qiu-Hong,Xu, Xi-Meng,et al. Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981-2100[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2025,16(5):974-984. |
| APA | Liu, Bin-Xiao.,Tang, Qiu-Hong.,Xu, Xi-Meng.,Sun, Si-Ao.,Chen, Deliang.,...&Ren, Hai-Yi.(2025).Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981-2100.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,16(5),974-984. |
| MLA | Liu, Bin-Xiao,et al."Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981-2100".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 16.5(2025):974-984. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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