Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tang, Senlin2; Zhang, Qiang2; Gong, Xintong2; Xu, Chong-Yu3; Singh, Vijay P.4,5,6; Sun, Fubao7,8; Feng, Yao7; Li, Ziwei7,8; Han, Likun1,9,10 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 257页码:105252 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Water resources Attribution analysis Optimal fingerprinting Emergent constraint |
| ISSN号 | 0921-8181 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105252 |
| 产权排序 | 6 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Water is vital for the sustainability of human society, and rational water resources management and effective adaptation strategies require a clear and holistic understanding of the drivers and uncertainties influencing water availability. However, the key factors and uncertainties, and their spatial heterogeneity in global water resources remain poorly quantified. Here, we employed optimal fingerprinting to identify the drivers of global water resources changes from 1980 to 2014. We found that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing explains approximately 77.6 % of the observed upward trend, significantly outweighing the contributions from natural external forcing (NAT, 45.8 %) and aerosols (AER,-23.4 %). We evaluated the contributions of internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty to future global water-resource projections, and attributed similar to 89.2 % of the total variance to the model uncertainty. Furthermore, by integrating historical observations (1995-2014) with the emergent constraint method, we reduced uncertainties in future projections (2081-2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The constrained projections revealed the underestimation of water-resource changes by 18.0 % (SSP2-4.5) and 13.4 % (SSP5-8.5) for the 2081-2100 period. Notably, model uncertainty under both warming scenarios fell by 33.1 % and 26.4 %, respectively, substantially boosting the reliability of future projections. These findings advance our understanding of the drivers and uncertainties in global water resources, informing adaptation strategies and long-term water resources planning. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | OBSERVED TRENDS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; VARIABILITY ; CHALLENGES ; RESOURCES ; IMPACTS |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography ; Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001650108100001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219749]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Qiang; Sun, Fubao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Fudan Univ, Key Lab Polar Atmosphere Ocean Ice Syst Weather &, Minist Educ, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Adv Interdisciplinary Inst Environm & Ecol, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Wastewater Informat Anal &, Zhuhai, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci & Hydrol, Oslo, Norway; 4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA; 5.Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil & Environm Engn, College Stn, TX USA; 6.UAE Univ, Natl Water & Energy Ctr, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates; 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; 8.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 9.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China; 10.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tang, Senlin,Zhang, Qiang,Gong, Xintong,et al. Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2026,257:105252. |
| APA | Tang, Senlin.,Zhang, Qiang.,Gong, Xintong.,Xu, Chong-Yu.,Singh, Vijay P..,...&Han, Likun.(2026).Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,257,105252. |
| MLA | Tang, Senlin,et al."Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 257(2026):105252. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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