Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang3; Bloschl, Gunter1; Wei, Haoshan2,3; Kong, Dongdong4; Ma, Ning3; Wagener, Thorsten5; Tian, Jing3; Xia, Jun6; Li, Congcong3; Wang, Longhao2,3 |
| 刊名 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-01-09 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| ISSN号 | 1752-0894 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41561-025-01897-9 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Reliable quantification of global water-cycle components, such as river flow and land evapotranspiration, remains a major challenge. Here we refine estimates of global water partitioning by combining outputs from multiple Earth system models with river flow observations from 50 large basins, applying the emergent constraint approach. Between 1980 and 2014, global river flow was (39.1 +/- 5.4) x 103 km3 yr-1, with a river flow-to-precipitation ratio of 0.35 +/- 0.03, both lower than previous estimates. Land evapotranspiration reached (73.4 +/- 6.2) x 103 km3 yr-1. Under climate change, we project global river flow to rise by 7.8 +/- 5.5 mm per year per degree of warming. This estimate, refined through the emergent constraint method, is 9.3% lower than the ensemble mean of Earth system models and reduces inter-model uncertainty by 66%. By integrating river flow observations, we provide more accurate historical estimates and strengthen future projections of global water-cycle components. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RECENT DECLINE ; CLIMATE ; LAND ; CARBON ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; ENERGY ; SENSITIVITY ; EVAPORATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001657792100001 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PORTFOLIO |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/219794]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tech Univ Wien, Inst Hydraul & Water Resources Engn, Vienna, Austria; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany; 6.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan, Peoples R China; 7.CSIRO Environm, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 8.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Yongqiang,Bloschl, Gunter,Wei, Haoshan,et al. Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2026,N/A. |
| APA | Zhang, Yongqiang.,Bloschl, Gunter.,Wei, Haoshan.,Kong, Dongdong.,Ma, Ning.,...&Liu, Changming.(2026).Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,N/A. |
| MLA | Zhang, Yongqiang,et al."Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models".NATURE GEOSCIENCE N/A(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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