Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China's large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Xinyu1,5; Wang, Kaiwen1; Luo, Qiuyu1,4; Wang, Guan3; Lu, Yu2; Jiang, Haining1,4; Yu, Jiamiao1,5; Liu, Changming1; Liu, Xiaomang1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 668页码:134953 |
| 关键词 | Hydrological means and extremes Runoff magnitude trends Runoff variability trends Actual runoff attribution |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134953 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Reservoirs are constructed by damming rivers to impound actual runoff (Ra) from upstream drainage areas, thereby securing water supply and buffering against hydrological extremes. A warming climate and intensifying human interventions are reshaping the water cycle, ultimately affecting the generation and distribution of Ra. Yet, Ra-related variations in reservoir drainage areas and their underlying drivers remain largely unknown, challenging sustainable reservoir management. Here, we combine the precise drainage boundaries of 913 large reservoirs in China with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3a (ISIMIP3a) runoff simulations to bridge this gap. We analyze trends in the magnitude and variability of four Ra-related indicators, namely actual runoff volume (Qa), standardized runoff index (SRI-12), drought frequency (Df), and pluvial frequency (Pf). Interannual magnitude trends in Qa, SRI-12, Df, and Pf display consistent spatial patterns, with 60-70% of reservoirs exhibiting drying trends concentrated in the eastern belt of the Hu Line. In contrast, interannual variability trends display inconsistent patterns, with 20-50% of reservoirs exhibiting enhancing variability. Applying the ISIMIP3a attribution framework, we attribute these trends to anthropogenic climate change (ACC), natural climate variability (NCV), and human water and land management (HWLM). Attribution analyses reveal that ACC dominates the magnitude trends, with mean contribution rates of 75-85%. Conversely, NCV dominates variability trends in Qa and Df, HWLM primarily drives SRI-12 variability, and NCV and ACC jointly dominate Pf variability. Given the uncertainties and limitations in ISIMIP3a-based trend and attribution analyses, we advocate incorporating observational constraints to improve assessment accuracy, thereby informing adaptive reservoir management under changing environmental conditions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DATASET |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001674679500001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/220960]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Kaiwen |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Water Environm Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.China South To North Water Divers Corp Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Danish Coll, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Xinyu,Wang, Kaiwen,Luo, Qiuyu,et al. Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China's large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2026,668:134953. |
| APA | Li, Xinyu.,Wang, Kaiwen.,Luo, Qiuyu.,Wang, Guan.,Lu, Yu.,...&Liu, Xiaomang.(2026).Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China's large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,668,134953. |
| MLA | Li, Xinyu,et al."Attribution of interannual runoff magnitude and variability in China's large reservoir drainage areas using Global Hydrological Models".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 668(2026):134953. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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