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Changes and attribution of irrigation water demand in Central Asia

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Shijia2,3; Tian, Jing3; Zhang, Yongqiang3; Zhang, Xuanze3; Wei, Haoshan2,3; Miao, Ping1; Ma, Hongli1; Wang, Xian3; Tang, Zixuan2,3
刊名REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
出版日期2026-02-17
卷号26期号:1页码:50
关键词Crop distribution Climate change Partial derivative approach Irrigation water requirement Attribution analysis
ISSN号1436-3798
DOI10.1007/s10113-026-02537-7
产权排序1
文献子类Article
英文摘要Agricultural water consumption accounts for more than 90% of water resources in Central Asia (CA). However, notable uncertainties remain regarding future variations in both net irrigation water demand (IWDnet\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{net}}$$\end{document}, mm) and actual irrigation water demand (IWDactual\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{actual}}$$\end{document}, m3) for major crops, as well as the underlying drivers of these changes. These uncertainties pose significant challenges for sustainable water management practices in the region. This paper investigates future changes in IWDnet\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{net}}$$\end{document} and IWDactual\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{actual}}$$\end{document} for four primary crops: corn, cotton, rice, and winter wheat. Using the partial derivative method, we analyze the factors contributing to these changes. The results indicate that IWDnet\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{net}}$$\end{document} for corn, cotton, and rice is expected to increase by 20-40%, 5-20%, and 5-20%, respectively, primarily due to rising vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Conversely, IWDnet\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{net}}$$\end{document} for winter wheat is projected to decrease, particularly under the SSP126 scenario, due to an increase in effective precipitation (Peff\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{P}}_{\text{eff}}$$\end{document}). In terms of IWDactual\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{actual}}$$\end{document}, the dominant influencing factor is the crop-planted area, with winter wheat showing a significant decrease in IWDactual\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{IWD}}_{\text{actual}}$$\end{document}. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective agricultural water resources management in CA. This knowledge will support the development of strategies to ensure sustainable water use in the region.
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WOS关键词REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; FERGANA VALLEY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACTS ; REQUIREMENTS ; SENSITIVITY ; COTTON ; CHINA
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001693086300003
出版者SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/220982]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Tian, Jing
作者单位1.Ordos Water Conservancy Bur, River & Lake Protect Ctr, Ordos 017000, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Shijia,Tian, Jing,Zhang, Yongqiang,et al. Changes and attribution of irrigation water demand in Central Asia[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2026,26(1):50.
APA Wang, Shijia.,Tian, Jing.,Zhang, Yongqiang.,Zhang, Xuanze.,Wei, Haoshan.,...&Tang, Zixuan.(2026).Changes and attribution of irrigation water demand in Central Asia.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,26(1),50.
MLA Wang, Shijia,et al."Changes and attribution of irrigation water demand in Central Asia".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 26.1(2026):50.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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