Irrigated agriculture on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains faces different risks of water scarcity
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yang, Ze-Long2,3; Bai, Peng3; Wang, Kai-Wen3; Tian, Yuan1; Liu, Xiao-Mang3 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:1页码:128-138 |
| 关键词 | Water supply Irrigation demand Meltwater Water security Tianshan |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.009 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Irrigated agriculture dependent on runoff from the Tianshan Mountains underpins socioeconomic development in the arid regions of Central Asia. However, ongoing warming and agricultural expansion profoundly alter local water supply and demand. Whether future mountain water supplies can meet rising irrigation demand remains unclear, leaving a critical gap in assessing water security in one of the world's most vulnerable agricultural frontiers. Here, we quantified the future risks to irrigation water security in the Tianshan Mountains by comparing changes in mountain runoff and downstream irrigation demand between the historical (1991-2020) and future (2071-2100) periods. The results indicate that the risk of irrigation water scarcity in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is projected to increase under future warming scenarios due to the growing imbalance between mountain runoff and downstream irrigation demand. The percentage of unmet irrigation demand in the Aibi Lake River System and Mid-branch River System of the north slope is projected to increase by 24%-32% and 14%-20%, respectively, in the future period compared to the historical period. In contrast, the risk in the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is expected to be mitigated, as projected increases in mountain runoff in the Weigan River System and Kaidu River System exceed rising irrigation demand by an average of 0.06 and 0.28 km3, respectively. To better reconcile the spatial distribution of irrigation demand and water resources, we recommend shifting 20% of the sown area in the Aibi Lake River System and 10% in the Mid-branch River System to the south slope. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; GLACIER INVENTORY ; ARID REGION ; CHINA ; SNOW ; VARIABILITY ; CATCHMENT ; IMPACTS ; RIVER |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001719773800001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221330]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Bai, Peng; Tian, Yuan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Lhasa Natl Ecol Res Stn, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 101408, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Ze-Long,Bai, Peng,Wang, Kai-Wen,et al. Irrigated agriculture on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains faces different risks of water scarcity[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2026,17(1):128-138. |
| APA | Yang, Ze-Long,Bai, Peng,Wang, Kai-Wen,Tian, Yuan,&Liu, Xiao-Mang.(2026).Irrigated agriculture on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains faces different risks of water scarcity.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,17(1),128-138. |
| MLA | Yang, Ze-Long,et al."Irrigated agriculture on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains faces different risks of water scarcity".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 17.1(2026):128-138. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。