Increasing coupling of hot-dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Feng, Yao1; Sun, Fu-Bao1,2; Wang, Hong1; Liu, Fa1 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:1页码:91-104 |
| 关键词 | Compound hot-dry wind and drought events Historical evolution Future risks Contribution analysis China |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.011 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Hot-dry winds (HDW) and droughts are two prevailing climate hazards posing increasing threats to human societies and natural ecosystems. Insights into compound HDW and drought events (CHDWDs) fill gaps in understanding their synergistic pattern and enable more disaster prevention strategies to mitigate consequent damage. By using meteorological observations and multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we analyzed the historical spatiotemporal patterns of HDWs, droughts, and CHDWDs across China, projected their future changes under different SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenarios, and quantified contributions of individual events to CHDWD frequency and intensity. Findings have revealed intensified HDW severity (-0.05 per decade, p < 0.05) and drought conditions (-0.07 per decade, p < 0.01) during 1980-2022, with a strong positive correlation (r = 0.79, p < 0.01) between them. The likelihood of CHDWDs has significantly increased across China (0.093 per decade, p < 0.01), with drylands being more susceptible. Droughts exert a larger influence on CHDWDs in arid regions (77%-91% to frequency and 55%-76% to intensity), while HDWs are more influential in humid areas (41%-46% to frequency and 57%-64% to intensity). Future simulations project increased frequency and strengthened intensity of CHDWDs from 2075 to 2100 under SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0. Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6, droughts dominate CHDWD frequency (68%-87%) in most regions, while under SSP5-8.5, HDWs contribute more (54%) than droughts in humid regions. To CHDWD intensity, HDWs contribute more (53%-71%) than droughts in humid regions, and droughts contribute more (54%-83%) than HDWs in non-humid regions. These results are valuable for improving agricultural risk management and guiding the development of targeted adaptation strategies. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; REGION ; IMPACT ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001720254000001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221354]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Feng, Yao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Yao,Sun, Fu-Bao,Wang, Hong,et al. Increasing coupling of hot-dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2026,17(1):91-104. |
| APA | Feng, Yao,Sun, Fu-Bao,Wang, Hong,&Liu, Fa.(2026).Increasing coupling of hot-dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,17(1),91-104. |
| MLA | Feng, Yao,et al."Increasing coupling of hot-dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 17.1(2026):91-104. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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