An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Mahmood, Rashid2; Jia, Shaofeng1,2,3; Lv, Aifeng2; Babel, Mukand S.4 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:1页码:43-66 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Water resources assessment Hydrological cycle Hydrological Modeling Three-River Source Region |
| ISSN号 | 2095-6339 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.iswcr.2024.01.005 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), China's water tower and an important ecological barrier in China, provides a considerable amount of water to the downstream regions, home to more than 500 million people. The present study focused on the assessment of hydrological components (i.e., precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, surface flow, baseflow, streamflow, soil moisture, snowmelt water, and terrestrial water storage), their transformation and trends along with meteorological elements (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine hours) in the historical and future periods. For this, the hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was applied to simulate hydrological components and Mann-Kendal to explore the trends for 1981-2015. First time, the statistical downscaling model, SDSM, was used to generate climatic data under the shared socio-economic scenario-5 (SSP585) in the region, which was applied to simulate the hydrological cycle. The assessment results showed that precipitation transformed into evapotranspiration and streamflow by 70% and 30 %, respectively. In the region, streamflow was generated by 78 %, 22 %, and 5.6 % by baseflow, surface flow, and snowmelt. According to trend results, all climatic variables showed statistically significant trends but insignificant in all hydrological components for the historical period, except evapotranspiration. However, all hydroclimatic components were projected to increase in the future, except windspeed. For example, temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and direct flow (surface flow) will increase by 1.4 (3.3) degrees C, 12 (36) %, 8.5 (19) %, 25 (95) %, and 77 (473) % in 2021-2060 (2061-2100) relative to 1981-2020, which shows, the region will be hotter and wetter, with high flooding potential in the future. These results will be helpful for precise water resources planning and management in this extremely sensitive region to climate change. (c) 2024 International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation, China Water and Power Press, and China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; HEADWATERS REGION ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; YELLOW-RIVER ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; LAKE CHAD ; TRENDS ; CHINA ; BASIN |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001718282100001 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221364]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Mahmood, Rashid |
| 作者单位 | 1.Qinghai Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Xining, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Qinghai Inst Water Resources & Hydropower, Qinghai Key Lab Basin Water Cycle & Ecol, Xining, Peoples R China; 4.Asian Inst Technol, Water Engn & Management, Pathum Thani, Thailand |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,Lv, Aifeng,et al. An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle[J]. INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH,2025,13(1):43-66. |
| APA | Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,Lv, Aifeng,&Babel, Mukand S..(2025).An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle.INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH,13(1),43-66. |
| MLA | Mahmood, Rashid,et al."An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle".INTERNATIONAL SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION RESEARCH 13.1(2025):43-66. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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