Theoretical and Actual Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Xiaozhen11,13; Deng, Lei6,11,13; Ciais, Philippe10; Wu, Jin5,7,12; Peng, Changhui8; Penuelas, Josep9; Zhao, Xining11,13; Peng, Shouzhang6,13; Yue, Chao13; Niu, Shuli4 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-09 |
| 卷号 | 32期号:3页码:e70779 |
| 关键词 | afforestation land use change soil organic carbon vegetation carbon dynamic |
| ISSN号 | 1354-1013 |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.70779 |
| 产权排序 | 10 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Terrestrial ecosystems are vital for achieving carbon neutrality, yet the distinction between their biophysical limits and realizable potential remains unclear. Here, we developed an integrated framework to quantify China's terrestrial theoretical carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and actual CSP under diverse climate and management scenarios, incorporating vegetation dynamics and soil carbon stocks through 2100. We estimated current terrestrial carbon stock at 95.3 Pg C, with a theoretical CSP of 166.4 Pg C. By the 2060s, afforestation could expand by 77.5 Mha, representing 8% of China's land area. For actual CSP, peak CSP is projected to reach 0.35 Pg C yr-1 during 2020-2060, declining to 0.12 Pg C yr-1 from 2060 to 2100 under the SSP119 scenario combined with forest expansion. Actual CSP remains significantly below the theoretical limit. Speciafically, a gap of 51.5-57.9 Pg C remains between actual and theoretical CSP across all scenarios. However, strategic reforestation coupled with low emissions could reduce this gap by approximately 15 Pg C by 2100. These findings differentiated the theoretical and actual CSP, providing quantitative baselines for China's carbon sink capacity and actionable guidance for achieving carbon neutrality through optimized land use. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | LAND ; VEGETATION ; SYSTEM ; POLICY |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001708998100001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221202]  |
| 专题 | 生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Deng, Lei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Forestry, Ecol & Nat Conservat Inst, Key Lab Forest Ecol & Environm, Chinas Natl Forestry & Grassland Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Goettingen, Dept Soil Sci Temperate Ecosyst, Dept Agr Soil Sci, Gottingen, Germany; 3.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA USA; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Hong Kong, Inst Climate & Carbon Neutral, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 6.Qinghai Normal Univ, Coll Life Sci, Key Lab Surface Proc & Ecol Conservat Qinghai Tibe, Xining, Peoples R China; 7.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, State Key Lab Agrobiotechnol, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 8.Univ Quebec Montreal, Inst Environm Sci, Dept Biol Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 9.UAB, Global Ecol Unit CREAF, CSIC, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; 10.UVSQ, LSCE, CNRS, UMR CEA, Batiment 709, Gif Sur Yvette, France; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Xiaozhen,Deng, Lei,Ciais, Philippe,et al. Theoretical and Actual Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2026,32(3):e70779. |
| APA | Wang, Xiaozhen.,Deng, Lei.,Ciais, Philippe.,Wu, Jin.,Peng, Changhui.,...&Liu, Shirong.(2026).Theoretical and Actual Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,32(3),e70779. |
| MLA | Wang, Xiaozhen,et al."Theoretical and Actual Carbon Sequestration Potential in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 32.3(2026):e70779. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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