Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Yihang1,2; Liu, Zhengjia1,2 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-09-05 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:9页码:e2025EF005937 |
| 关键词 | climate warming northern limit of maize planting planting structure kernel density estimation maize-soybean key competitive region |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025EF005937 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Climate warming is driving the northward movement of crop planting limits, especially for maize in Northeast China. While previous studies focused on dynamics of the potential northern limit of maize (PNLine), the movement of the actual northern limit of maize (ANLine) and its agricultural impacts remain underexplored. To bridge the gap, this study first developed a method to detect the ANLine using satellite-derived crop data and kernel density estimation. To assess the driving factors behind the expansion of maize acreage, an empirical analysis was conducted in the maize-soybean key competitive region (KCR). Finally, we calculated the climate-warming driven maize acreage expansion over the past two decades and projected its changes for the next decade. Results showed that the PNLine and ANLine moved northwards by an average of 101.67 and 75.4 km from 2000 to 2020. The two lines showed a strong correlation (r = 0.78, p < 0.05). The increasing accumulated temperature was the key driver behind these movements. A 10 degrees Cd increase in AAT10 is associated with a 3.12% increase in maize acreage in the KCR. From 2001 to 2020, similar to 49.5% (2.83 x 10(6) ha) of the maize acreage expansion could be attributable to climate warming. By 2030, climate warming is projected to expand the maize acreage by 2.43, 2.66, and 3.19 x 10(6) ha under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings highlight the need for strategies to narrow the profit gap between maize and soybean, offering insights for regional crop planting structure adjustments and agricultural sustainability under climate change. Plain Language Summary Climate warming is pushing the northward movement of maize planting limits in Northeast China. This study tracks how the actual northern limit of maize (ANLine) has moved over the past two decades, using satellite data and kernel density estimation. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the ANLine moved northwards by 75.4 km, with rising temperatures being the main driver. Around 49.5% of the expansion in maize acreage during this period was driven by climate warming. Looking ahead, this study predicts further maize acreage expansion by 2030, which could threaten the soybean production and food security in China. In order to offset maize acreage expansion led by climate warming in Northeast China, more strategies would be needed to narrow the profit gap between maize and soybean by 1811-2372 $/ha. These findings could provide valuable insights for adjusting planting structures in the face of climate change. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUMMER MAIZE ; CHINA ; AGRICULTURE ; IMPACTS ; REGION |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001566955100001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216108]  |
| 专题 | 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Zhengjia |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Yihang,Liu, Zhengjia. Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2025,13(9):e2025EF005937. |
| APA | Huang, Yihang,&Liu, Zhengjia.(2025).Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy.EARTHS FUTURE,13(9),e2025EF005937. |
| MLA | Huang, Yihang,et al."Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy".EARTHS FUTURE 13.9(2025):e2025EF005937. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。