Unraveling the decoupling mechanisms and nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Jianpeng1,2,4; Lei, Luming4; Mu, Yujin4; Liu, Min3; Lu, Dadao2 |
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 179页码:114157 |
| 关键词 | Decoupling Carbon emissions Economic growth Influencing factors Nonlinear analysis XGBoost-SHAP China |
| ISSN号 | 1470-160X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114157 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Decoupling carbon emissions from economic development is crucial for sustainable development and achieving carbon peaking and neutrality goals. However, previous studies primarily assume linear relationships between influencing factors and carbon emissions, with limited attention to nonlinear effects at the urban scale. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions across 232 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2022. Using the Tapio decoupling model, we analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, as well as their spatiotemporal variations. Additionally, an XGBoost-SHAP model is applied to uncover nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions. The results show that, over the past 23 years, total and per capita carbon emissions have increased, while carbon emission intensity has declined. Northern cities, particularly in the Hohhot-BaotouOrdos-Yulin (HBOY) urban agglomeration and Northeast China, exhibit higher emissions and intensity compared to southern cities. From 2000 to 2022, over 94 % of cities achieved decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions, though most were classified as weak decoupling. The proportion of cities achieving strong decoupling increased from 20 % to 40 % over three phases. Expansive negative decoupling and expansive coupling cities are concentrated in the HBOY region and Northeast China. Key determinants of carbon emissions include GDP, population size, industrial structure, and energy intensity. GDP and energy intensity have nearlinear positive effects, while industrial structure, green patents, and environmental regulations show inverted U-shaped relationships. Conversely, population size, environmental protection expenditures, environmental rights trading exhibits a U-shaped trend This study highlights the nonlinear effects of various factors on emissions and offers insights for emission reduction strategies in diverse regions. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CO2 EMISSIONS ; CITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001568912400008 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216156]  |
| 专题 | 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Jianpeng; Liu, Min |
| 作者单位 | 1.Peking Univ, Key Lab Earth Surface Proc, Minist Educ, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.East China Normal Univ, Sch Ecol & Environm Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China 4.Inner Mongolia Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Hohhot 010021, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jianpeng,Lei, Luming,Mu, Yujin,et al. Unraveling the decoupling mechanisms and nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2025,179:114157. |
| APA | Zhang, Jianpeng,Lei, Luming,Mu, Yujin,Liu, Min,&Lu, Dadao.(2025).Unraveling the decoupling mechanisms and nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,179,114157. |
| MLA | Zhang, Jianpeng,et al."Unraveling the decoupling mechanisms and nonlinear drivers of carbon emissions in Chinese cities".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 179(2025):114157. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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