Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Yafei7,8,9,10; Ye, Yuxuan9,10; Nicholls, Robert J.6,11; Olsson, Lennart8; van Vuuren, Detlef P.1,5; Peterson, Garry7; He, Yao9,10; Li, Manchun2,3; Fan, Jie9,10; Scown, Murray4,8 |
| 刊名 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-09-24 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| ISSN号 | 1758-678X |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | STORM-SURGE ; LAND ; PROTECTION ; IMPACT |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001577740800001 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PORTFOLIO |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/216191]  |
| 专题 | 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Yafei; Scown, Murray |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr South Sea Studies, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 4.Lund Univ, Swedish Ctr Impacts Climate Extremes CLIMES, Lund, Sweden 5.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands; 6.Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, England; 7.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden; 8.Lund Univ, Lund Univ Ctr Sustainabil Studies LUCSUS, Lund, Sweden; 9.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China; 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yafei,Ye, Yuxuan,Nicholls, Robert J.,et al. Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2025,N/A. |
| APA | Wang, Yafei.,Ye, Yuxuan.,Nicholls, Robert J..,Olsson, Lennart.,van Vuuren, Detlef P..,...&Scown, Murray.(2025).Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,N/A. |
| MLA | Wang, Yafei,et al."Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE N/A(2025). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。