Modeling spatial processes of extreme heat impacts on global economy: a multi-scale spatio-temporal approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Dong, Guanpeng1,2,3; Zhang, Hang2; Liu, Yansui1,4; Miao, Changhong1,2,3 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE BULLETIN
 |
| 出版日期 | 2025-10-15 |
| 卷号 | 70期号:19页码:3233-3244 |
| 关键词 | Spatial statistics Multi-scale model Spatial autocorrelation Extreme heat Input-output |
| ISSN号 | 2095-9273 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scib.2025.07.035 |
| 产权排序 | 4 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Rising frequency, intensity, and geographic scope of extreme heat profoundly impede global sustainable economic development. However, existing climate econometric models are limited in capturing the spatial processes through which extreme heat affects the global economy, often resulting in downwardbiased estimates of total economic losses. This study develops a novel multi-scale spatio-temporal model that integrates classic multi-level modeling with spatial statistics, explicitly addressing key challenges faced by climate econometrics. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is derived for model implementation. Using this model, we present the first quantitative assessment of the impacts of extreme heat on global economic production and their scale-dependent spatial processes. Our findings reveal that, at the national scale, economic losses caused by input-output economic linkages initially decline slowly, then drop sharply with increasing connectivity, with an inflection point around 0.1. When accounting for spatial propagation effects, a 1 degrees C increase in extreme heat intensity leads to an average loss of 2.54% [0.90%, 4.19%] of annual GDP per capita-substantially higher than estimates assuming economic losses are locally confined. Moreover, the economic impacts of extreme heat exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with positive marginal effects detected in colder regions and negative effects in warmer regions, with a turning point around 33.7 degrees C. This study offers a new methodology to evaluate the impact of climate change from a multi-scale and spatial perspective . (c) 2025 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | DAILY ACTIVITY SATISFACTION ; CAUSAL |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001598923500015 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/217508]  |
| 专题 | 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yansui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Henan Univ, Fac Geog Sci & Engn, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China; 2.Henan Univ, Key Res Inst Yellow River Civilizat & Sustainable, Kaifeng 475001, Peoples R China; 3.Henan Univ, Climate Change & Carbon Neutral Lab, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dong, Guanpeng,Zhang, Hang,Liu, Yansui,et al. Modeling spatial processes of extreme heat impacts on global economy: a multi-scale spatio-temporal approach[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2025,70(19):3233-3244. |
| APA | Dong, Guanpeng,Zhang, Hang,Liu, Yansui,&Miao, Changhong.(2025).Modeling spatial processes of extreme heat impacts on global economy: a multi-scale spatio-temporal approach.SCIENCE BULLETIN,70(19),3233-3244. |
| MLA | Dong, Guanpeng,et al."Modeling spatial processes of extreme heat impacts on global economy: a multi-scale spatio-temporal approach".SCIENCE BULLETIN 70.19(2025):3233-3244. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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