中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
The economic impacts of flood-driven transportation delays

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Shan, Xinmeng5,6,7; Yao, Qian5; Wang, Jun5; Wen, Jiahong3,4; Li, Mengya2; Scussolini, Paolo1; Wei, Xuchen5; Gao, Siyu1
刊名JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY
出版日期2025-12-01
卷号129页码:14
关键词Flooding Transportation disruption Commute delay Indirect economic loss
ISSN号0966-6923
DOI10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104436
英文摘要

Besides direct damages, flood have indirect impacts on cities, an essential one being on transportation. Flooded road closures cause absences and delays for employees, with cascading impacts on business and community. This study estimates the indirect losses from commuting delays caused by flooding in the coastal megacity of Shanghai. Our framework includes modeling of commuting patterns, flood hydrodynamics, and wage loss. The results show that the commuting pattern in Shanghai exhibits core-periphery and multi-core interactions. Flood events in Shanghai significantly disrupt urban mobility and incur substantial economic losses. Average vehicle speeds decrease by 28 % to 54 % across 1/10-year, 1/100-year, and 1/1000-year flood scenarios, dropping as low as 22 km/h during the most severe floods. Accessibility is heavily impacted, with 47 % to 92 % of commuter connections lost due to 51 to 186 traffic zones becoming inaccessible. Economic losses range from US$3.7 billion to US$12 billion, with the highest losses concentrated in the central districts of Xuhui, Jingan, Huangpu, and Hongkou, where the dense commuter population and concentrated economic activities make them particularly vulnerable. Our analysis also indicates that climate change exacerbates the decline in commuting accessibility, leading to even greater economic and social disruptions in the future. The findings have significant implications for risk management and adaptation, and the methodology can be used to assess commuter delay losses from flooding in other coastal megacities.

WOS关键词DIFFUSION-WAVE TREATMENT ; ROAD NETWORK ; LAND SUBSIDENCE ; SHANGHAI ; RISK ; DISRUPTION
资助项目National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[42371088] ; National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[42171080] ; National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[42471082] ; China National Key Research and Development Program[2023YFF0807000] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2024M763185]
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Geography ; Transportation
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001598858200001
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
资助机构National Natural Science Founda-tion of China ; China National Key Research and Development Program ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/59237]  
专题中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者Wang, Jun
作者单位1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
2.East China Normal Univ, Sch Publ Management, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China
3.Shanghai Normal Univ, Shanghai Emergency Management Bur, Key Lab Resilient Cities & Integrated Risk Managem, Shanghai 200234, Peoples R China
4.Shanghai Normal Univ, Sch Environm & Geog Sci, Shanghai 200234, Peoples R China
5.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
6.CAS HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Shan, Xinmeng,Yao, Qian,Wang, Jun,et al. The economic impacts of flood-driven transportation delays[J]. JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY,2025,129:14.
APA Shan, Xinmeng.,Yao, Qian.,Wang, Jun.,Wen, Jiahong.,Li, Mengya.,...&Gao, Siyu.(2025).The economic impacts of flood-driven transportation delays.JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY,129,14.
MLA Shan, Xinmeng,et al."The economic impacts of flood-driven transportation delays".JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY 129(2025):14.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所

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