Integrating machine learning and numerical methods for enhanced landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in the Bhotekoshi watershed, central Nepal
文献类型:期刊论文
| 作者 | Gurung, Bishal4,5; Chen, Ningsheng1,2,3,5; Hu, Guisheng1,2,5; Khadka, Nitesh4,5; Sapkota, Liladhar4,5; Gouli, Manish Raj4,5; Tian, Shufeng1,2,5 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
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| 出版日期 | 2026-02-17 |
| 页码 | 21 |
| 关键词 | Disaster Machine learning Landslide runout modeling r.avaflow Koshi Basin |
| ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11629-025-9951-2 |
| 英文摘要 | Landslides pose a significant threat in the mountainous regions of Nepal. Landslide susceptibility maps are commonly used to identify potential landslide zones by statistically analyzing geological, topographical, and hydrological factors, assuming that similar conditions may trigger future failures. While such maps provide valuable insights into landslide-triggering conditions, they are limited in assessing risk to settlements and infrastructure located downslope or in valley bottoms. This study integrates machine learning based landslide susceptibility with numerical runout modeling to provide a comprehensive landslide hazard assessment in the Bhotekoshi watershed, overcoming the limitations of traditional models that focus solely on statistical susceptibility. To conduct the susceptibility analysis, a total of 439 landslides were mapped from 2012 to 2021 using satellite images. Of these, 70% were used for training two machine learning (ML) models: random forest and Xtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and the remaining 30% were used for validation. Among the two ML models, Random Forest model demonstrated slightly superior performance, achieving higher predictive accuracy. After the machine learning susceptibility analysis, the study transitions into a regional-scale landslide runout analysis. First, a back analysis of the past landslide event was conducted to fine-tune the model parameters (internal angle of friction and basal friction angle) and validate performance of the runout model. Following the back analysis, the regional-scale numerical modeling of landslide runout was conducted by designating areas classified as the highest susceptibility class in the Random Forest susceptibility map as potential release zones. This approach allows for a detailed examination of landslide propagation and potential impacts along the downslope settlements and infrastructures. The analysis clearly demonstrates that integrating both machine learning and numerical runout methods significantly increases the estimated exposure of population, buildings, and roads within the very high hazard class compared to relying solely on susceptibility methods. Specifically, population exposure rises from 360 to 7743, buildings increase from 97 to 2771, and road exposure expands from 41 to 251 km. This result highlights the significant risk of underestimating exposure in the analyses that solely rely on landslide susceptibility models. Integration of susceptibility and runout analysis improves landslide risk assessment, aiding in land-use planning and disaster mitigation strategies. |
| WOS关键词 | ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS ; SPATIAL PREDICTION MODELS ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; HIGHWAY CORRIDOR ; RIVER-BASIN ; DEBRIS FLOW ; STABILITY ; INDEX ; R.AVAFLOW ; FAILURE |
| 资助项目 | China Scholarship Council (CSC) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42361144880] ; Science and Technology Program of Xizang[XZ202402ZD0001] ; Basic Research Program of Qinghai Province[2024-ZJ-904] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Programs of CPSF[GZC20232571] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Programs of CPSF[2024M753153] ; International Cooperation Overseas Platform Project, CAS[131C11KYSB20200033] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001692693700001 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | China Scholarship Council (CSC) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Science and Technology Program of Xizang ; Basic Research Program of Qinghai Province ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Programs of CPSF ; International Cooperation Overseas Platform Project, CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/59525] ![]() |
| 专题 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Ningsheng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tribhuvan Univ, Chinese Acad Sci, Kathmandu Ctr Res & Educ, Kathmandu 44618, Nepal 2.Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 3.Yangtze Univ, Hubei Engn Res Ctr Unconvent Petr Geol & Engn, Wuhan 430100, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Engn Resilience, Chengdu 610299, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gurung, Bishal,Chen, Ningsheng,Hu, Guisheng,et al. Integrating machine learning and numerical methods for enhanced landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in the Bhotekoshi watershed, central Nepal[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2026:21. |
| APA | Gurung, Bishal.,Chen, Ningsheng.,Hu, Guisheng.,Khadka, Nitesh.,Sapkota, Liladhar.,...&Tian, Shufeng.(2026).Integrating machine learning and numerical methods for enhanced landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in the Bhotekoshi watershed, central Nepal.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,21. |
| MLA | Gurung, Bishal,et al."Integrating machine learning and numerical methods for enhanced landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping in the Bhotekoshi watershed, central Nepal".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE (2026):21. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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