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The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Xinhua1,5,6; Chai, Jiaqi5,6; Feng, Shiwei5,7; Xiang NB(向南彬)2,5; Deng, Linhua3; Liang, Yidan5,6; Feng, Xueshang4,5; Xu, Tingting3; Wan, Miao3
刊名SOLAR PHYSICS
出版日期2025-11-12
卷号300期号:11
关键词Coronal mass ejections, initiation and propagation Coronal mass ejections, interplanetary Waves, propagation Waves, shock Solar wind, shock waves
ISSN号0038-0938
DOI10.1007/s11207-025-02564-3
产权排序第5完成单位
文献子类Article
英文摘要Recently, a novel blast wave solution based on shock dynamics had been proposed. This study adopts a series of improvements and optimization strategies to develop this solution for the purpose of real forecasting capabilities, which leads to a Blast Wave Model (BWM). Firstly, an empirical formula was used to derive the initial shock velocity from the linear speed of the associated coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Secondly, a correction relation was introduced to account for the effect of the shock's main propagation direction on its arrival time. Finally, an appropriate judgment index was established to allow the BWM model to determine whether a shock would reach the Earth. The BWM model was used to predict the arrival times of 337 shock events associated with CMEs from January 2013 to July 2023, and the prediction results demonstrated that the success rate for the shock's arrival and non-arrival is as high as 64%. For those Earth-reaching events, the model had an averaged absolute forecast error of 9.1 hours for the arrival time, and a relative error of less than 15% for 61% cases. Compared with other models of the same kind (three versions of the Shock Propagation Model, the Shock Time of Arrival model), the BWM model shows a higher level of forecast accuracy and smaller prediction errors of the shock arrival time.
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
URL标识查看原文
出版地VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
WOS关键词CORONAL MASS EJECTION ; PROPAGATION ; EVOLUTION ; EARTH
资助项目National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503800]; National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503900]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203054]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12373059]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12463009]; Shenzhen Key Laboratory Launching Project[ZDSYS20210702140800001]; Shenzhen Natural Science Fund (Stable Support Plan Program)[GXWD20220817152453003]; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035]; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001614243700002
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503800, 2022YFF0503900] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204, 42474224, 12203054, 12373059, 12463009] ; Shenzhen Key Laboratory Launching Project[ZDSYS20210702140800001] ; Shenzhen Natural Science Fund (Stable Support Plan Program)[GXWD20220817152453003] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035] ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28724]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
通讯作者Chai, Jiaqi
作者单位1.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center), Chengdu, 610041, People’s Republic of China;
2.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China;
3.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, 650504, People’s Republic of China;
4.State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, School of Aerospace, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, People’s Republic of China
5.State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, People’s Republic of China;
6.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, People’s Republic of China;
7.School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, People’s Republic of China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Xinhua,Chai, Jiaqi,Feng, Shiwei,et al. The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2025,300(11).
APA Zhao, Xinhua.,Chai, Jiaqi.,Feng, Shiwei.,向南彬.,Deng, Linhua.,...&Wan, Miao.(2025).The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023.SOLAR PHYSICS,300(11).
MLA Zhao, Xinhua,et al."The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023".SOLAR PHYSICS 300.11(2025).

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