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Mathematical expressions of the drag-based models for predicting the arrival time of coronal mass ejection and their development and evolutionary processes

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhao, Xinhua8; Shi, Chenyu4,5,8; Liu, Xiao5; Feng, Xueshang3,8; Zhou, Yufen8; Xiang NB(向南彬)2,8; Deng, Linhua7; Kuznetsov, Alexey1; Möstl, Christian6
刊名FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES
出版日期2025-11-24
卷号12
关键词coronal mass ejection drag-based model mathematical expression arrive time prediction space weather
ISSN号2296-987X
DOI10.3389/fspas.2025.1686823
产权排序第5完成单位
文献子类Review
英文摘要As one of the most violent solar activities, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of the large-scale magnetized plasma from the Sun's upper atmosphere into interplanetary space. The Earth-directed CMEs will cause significant disturbances to the solar-terrestrial environment, which in return threaten the safety of the communication, navigation, and ground technology systems. Therefore, predicting whether and when a CME will reach the Earth is an important ingredient of space weather research and forecasting. One commonly used prediction model for the CME's propagation and arrival time is the Drag-Based Model (DBM), which considers the drag force acting on interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) to explain how CMEs move through the solar wind. In this paper, we outline five routes for the development and evolution of the family models of DBM: 1. The DBM -> ELEvoHI (Ellipse Evolution Model Based on HI Observations) series; 2. The DBM -> LSF-DBM (Least-Squares Fitting Drag-Based Model) series; 3. The DBM -> PDBM (Probabilistic Drag-Based Model) series; 4. The DBM -> ExDBM (Extended Drag-Based Model); 5. The DBM -> EnDBM (Enhanced Drag-Based Model) Series. We clarify the development and evolution process of the model's mathematical expressions along each route as well as their connections. Finally, we provide a summary of the various models, comparing their similarities and differences, as well as their strengths and weaknesses, and suggest potential improvements.
学科主题天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 ; 地球科学 ; 空间物理学
URL标识查看原文
出版地AVENUE DU TRIBUNAL FEDERAL 34, LAUSANNE, CH-1015, SWITZERLAND
WOS关键词TRANSIT TIMES ; EARTH
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203054]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12373059]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12463009]; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035]; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; ERC grant; European Union; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001631616100001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224, 12203054, 12373059, 12463009] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035] ; Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; ERC grant ; European Union ; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation
版本出版稿
源URL[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28771]  
专题云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站
通讯作者Shi, Chenyu
作者单位1.Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Irkutsk, Russia;
2.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China;
3.State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, School of Aerospace, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China;
4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;
5.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, China;
6.Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria, Graz, Austria
7.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, China;
8.State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhao, Xinhua,Shi, Chenyu,Liu, Xiao,et al. Mathematical expressions of the drag-based models for predicting the arrival time of coronal mass ejection and their development and evolutionary processes[J]. FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES,2025,12.
APA Zhao, Xinhua.,Shi, Chenyu.,Liu, Xiao.,Feng, Xueshang.,Zhou, Yufen.,...&Möstl, Christian.(2025).Mathematical expressions of the drag-based models for predicting the arrival time of coronal mass ejection and their development and evolutionary processes.FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES,12.
MLA Zhao, Xinhua,et al."Mathematical expressions of the drag-based models for predicting the arrival time of coronal mass ejection and their development and evolutionary processes".FRONTIERS IN ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCES 12(2025).

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