Improving the Shock Propagation Model of SPM3 by Incorporating the Solar Energetic Particle Flux and the Principal Component Analysis Method
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Xinhua1,2; Liang, Yidan2,7; Xiang NB(向南彬)5; Kuznetsov, Alexey A.6; Feng, Shiwei4; Qi, Shiyang3; Chai, Jiaqi2,7 |
| 刊名 | ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-10 |
| 卷号 | 999期号:2 |
| ISSN号 | 0004-637X |
| DOI | 10.3847/1538-4357/ae421e |
| 产权排序 | 第4完成单位 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), as one of the most destructive solar activity phenomena, are the primary driver of extreme space weather events. Accurately predicting the probability and arrival time of the corresponding interplanetary CMEs and their associated shocks is crucial in space weather forecasting. Currently, the primary shock propagation prediction models mainly input the initial kinematic parameters of CMEs near the Sun. The physics-based Shock Propagation Model Version 3 (SPM3) has demonstrated a good forecasting performance for the CME/shock events from 2013 January to 2023 July. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study incorporates the flux of solar energetic particles (SEPs). A composite index (I), constructed using principal component analysis, quantifies the combined influence of SEP and CME's source longitude. The analysis reveals that SPM3 systematically underestimates the shock's transit times when the I < 0.2 and V-CME < 650 km s(-1). For the events identified by these criteria, an empirical velocity-based bias correction is applied. Notably, the SEP flux data are specifically used to flag events where the correction is applied, rather than entering as a continuous predictor. The revised version SPM3v2 achieves a total prediction success rate of 61%, with mean absolute error and root mean square error reduced to 8.27 and 10.65 hr, outperforming the original SPM3. |
| 学科主题 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| 出版地 | No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND |
| WOS关键词 | CME ARRIVAL-TIME ; CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ; EARTH ; DISTURBANCE ; EVENTS ; TOOL |
| 资助项目 | National Key R & D Program of China[2025YFF0510701]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203054]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12373059]; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035]; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349]; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative, PIFI Group[2025PG0008] |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001705083100001 |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 资助机构 | National Key R & D Program of China[2025YFF0510701] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224, 12203054, 12373059] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035] ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349] ; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative, PIFI Group[2025PG0008] |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/29029]  |
| 专题 | 云南天文台_抚仙湖太阳观测站 |
| 通讯作者 | Liang, Yidan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center), Chengdu 610041, People’s Republic of China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, People’s Republic of China; liangyidan221@mails.ucas.ac.cn; 3.College of Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, People’s Republic of China 4.School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, People’s Republic of China; 5.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011, People’s Republic of China; 6.Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Irkutsk, Russia; 7.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Xinhua,Liang, Yidan,Xiang NB,et al. Improving the Shock Propagation Model of SPM3 by Incorporating the Solar Energetic Particle Flux and the Principal Component Analysis Method[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2026,999(2). |
| APA | Zhao, Xinhua.,Liang, Yidan.,向南彬.,Kuznetsov, Alexey A..,Feng, Shiwei.,...&Chai, Jiaqi.(2026).Improving the Shock Propagation Model of SPM3 by Incorporating the Solar Energetic Particle Flux and the Principal Component Analysis Method.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,999(2). |
| MLA | Zhao, Xinhua,et al."Improving the Shock Propagation Model of SPM3 by Incorporating the Solar Energetic Particle Flux and the Principal Component Analysis Method".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 999.2(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：云南天文台
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