MTSP-Net: A Multimodal Time Series Prediction Network for Solar Cycle Forecasting
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Duan, Zhi-Han1; Wang, Rui1,2; Li, Qiao-Ling3; Wang XQ(王希群)4; Li, Xin-Yue1 |
| 刊名 | RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-06-27 |
| 卷号 | 26期号:6 |
| 关键词 | methods: data analysis methods: statistical Sun: activity (Sun:) sunspots |
| ISSN号 | 1674-4527 |
| DOI | 10.1088/1674-4527/ae4e12 |
| 产权排序 | 第4完成单位 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Solar cycle prediction is of great importance not only for modern technologies, but also for understanding the mechanisms underlying solar activity. In this paper, a novel Multimodal Time Series Prediction Network (MTSP-Net) is proposed for the forecasting of solar cycle 25 and 26 by employing the sunspot number (SSN) data obtained from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Our method is based on multiscale temporal convolution, incorporating modules such as periodic time encoding, phase-modulated attention and long short-term memory block, and takes multiple physical features as auxiliary inputs to enhance the prediction performance. The analysis indicates that the proposed model has the ability of capturing both short-term fluctuations and longer-term cyclical patterns of the data. The Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Error of the model are 21.04 and 18.56, respectively. Finally, solar cycle 25 that was predicted to occur in 2024 June with the peak value of 155.1 by 13 months smoothed SSN. This result is closer to the actual observed values than those obtained by other methods, which occured in 2024 October with a peak value of 160.8. For the forecasting of solar cycle 26, the peak value is predicted to be 158.45 in 2034 April, which is consistent with the results of existing methods. |
| 学科主题 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| 出版地 | No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND |
| WOS关键词 | MODEL |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[12473054]; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000]; Basic Research Fund Projects in Yunnan Province[2019FA001]; Yunnan Province Science Foundation Project[202105AC160085] |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001735029500001 |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[12473054] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000] ; Basic Research Fund Projects in Yunnan Province[2019FA001] ; Yunnan Province Science Foundation Project[202105AC160085] |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/29103]  |
| 专题 | 天文技术实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Rui |
| 作者单位 | 1.School of Electronics and Information Engineering, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710048, China; ruiwang@mail.ustc.edu.cn; 2.Shaanxi Artificial Intelligence Joint Laboratory, Xi’an Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710600, China; 3.Department of Astronomy, Key Laboratory of Astroparticle Physics of Yunnan Province, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China; 4.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duan, Zhi-Han,Wang, Rui,Li, Qiao-Ling,et al. MTSP-Net: A Multimodal Time Series Prediction Network for Solar Cycle Forecasting[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2026,26(6). |
| APA | Duan, Zhi-Han,Wang, Rui,Li, Qiao-Ling,王希群,&Li, Xin-Yue.(2026).MTSP-Net: A Multimodal Time Series Prediction Network for Solar Cycle Forecasting.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,26(6). |
| MLA | Duan, Zhi-Han,et al."MTSP-Net: A Multimodal Time Series Prediction Network for Solar Cycle Forecasting".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 26.6(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：云南天文台
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