Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Jianwen5; Fu, Meichen1,5; Liang, Yanqing4; Zhao, Chaoran3; Li, Sijia5; Tang, Feng2 |
| 刊名 | APPLIED GEOGRAPHY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 190页码:103991 |
| 关键词 | Carbon balance effects Population shrinking cities Spatiotemporal heterogeneity Urban transition China |
| ISSN号 | 0143-6228 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103991 |
| 产权排序 | 3 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Urban population shrinkage exerts complex and heterogeneous impacts on regional carbon balance, yet existing studies often overlook its spatiotemporal dynamics within evolving policy contexts. Our study integrates triennial census data (2000, 2010, and 2020) with high-resolution carbon flux inventories to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms of carbon balance across 287 Chinese prefectures from 2000 to 2020. Using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) and mediation analysis, we identified two distinct phases: Phase I (2000-2010), marked by industrial relocation, and Phase II (2010-2020), characterized by accelerated decarbonization policies. Key findings included: (1) Population shrinkage increased the carbon balance index in southwestern China but exacerbated carbon deficits in the northeast, where industrial lock-in sustained higher carbon balance indices. (2) The GTWR coefficient for population shrinkage declined from beta = 0.19 (p < 0.01) in Phase I to beta = 0.09 (p < 0.01) in Phase II, indicating weakened carbon balance benefits under policy interventions. (3) Mediation analysis identified economic recession as a central pathway (effect: 0.0385), with the chained mechanism population shrinkage -> recession -> innovation drain -> carbon balance decline accounting for 65.9% of total effects. Collapsing innovation systems were found to intensify carbon lock-in. These results underscore that the carbon balance effects of population shrinkage are geographically contingent and policy-sensitive, suggesting that sustainability dividends from demographic decline are not universally guaranteed. This study advocates for region-specific decarbonization strategies to support China's dual-carbon goals and offers a transferable analytical framework for aging societies worldwide. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS研究方向 | Geography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001733406900001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221471]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Fu, Meichen |
| 作者单位 | 1.20 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Anhui JianZhu Univ, Sch Publ Adm, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 4.Hebei Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shijiazhuang 050024, Peoples R China; 5.China Univ Geosci Beijing, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jianwen,Fu, Meichen,Liang, Yanqing,et al. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition[J]. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY,2026,190:103991. |
| APA | Zhang, Jianwen,Fu, Meichen,Liang, Yanqing,Zhao, Chaoran,Li, Sijia,&Tang, Feng.(2026).Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition.APPLIED GEOGRAPHY,190,103991. |
| MLA | Zhang, Jianwen,et al."Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition".APPLIED GEOGRAPHY 190(2026):103991. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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