Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use Using an Integrated NSGA-III-PLUS Framework in Coastal Urban Agglomerations
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Pan, Tingting1,2,3; Su, Fenzhen2 |
| 刊名 | ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-08 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:3页码:113 |
| 关键词 | multi-scenario simulation low-carbon development PLUS model NSGA-III coastal urban agglomerations |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijgi15030113 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Rapid urban expansion poses growing challenges for balancing carbon emissions (CE), economic development, and ecological protection, particularly in coastal urban agglomerations. Although optimization-simulation approaches have been widely applied, explicit consideration of low-carbon objectives remains limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III (NSGA-III)-patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) framework that combines multi-objective optimization with spatially explicit land-use simulation. Using multi-temporal land-use datasets (2000-2020) from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), this research examined spatiotemporal land-use transitions and their co-evolution with CE, ecosystem services value (ESV), and GDP under five development scenarios. The results show that construction land expanded by 78% from 2000 to 2020, largely through cropland conversion, which pushed CE upward to 335.4 Mt. For 2030, the Low Carbon Emission scenario reduces CE by 11.8 Mt compared with the natural development scenario. The Balanced Development scenario maintains economic growth while limiting CE increases and stabilizing ESV. Spatially, scenario differences are limited in extent. Over 93% of areas remain unchanged, and variations are mainly concentrated in peri-urban corridors around the Guangzhou-Foshan core. Overall, the NSGA-III-PLUS framework provides a structured approach for coordinating carbon mitigation and land-use planning in rapidly urbanizing coastal areas. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Physical Geography ; Remote Sensing |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001725660100001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221584]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Su, Fenzhen |
| 作者单位 | 1.Ningbo Univ, Donghai Acad, Ningbo 325211, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.Ningbo Univ, Zhejiang Collaborat Innovat Ctr Land & Marine Spat, Ningbo 325211, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pan, Tingting,Su, Fenzhen. Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use Using an Integrated NSGA-III-PLUS Framework in Coastal Urban Agglomerations[J]. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION,2026,15(3):113. |
| APA | Pan, Tingting,&Su, Fenzhen.(2026).Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use Using an Integrated NSGA-III-PLUS Framework in Coastal Urban Agglomerations.ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION,15(3),113. |
| MLA | Pan, Tingting,et al."Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use Using an Integrated NSGA-III-PLUS Framework in Coastal Urban Agglomerations".ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 15.3(2026):113. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。