Combined effect of climate change and catchment characteristics on streamflow response in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Eshete, Daniel G.1,2,3; Zhang, Yongqiang3; Xu, Zhenwu3; Li, Congcong3; Huang, Zhen3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 405页码:129682 |
| 关键词 | Budyko Climate change Elasticity Streamflow variability Upper Blue Nile |
| ISSN号 | 0301-4797 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.129682 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Recently, climate change and human activities such as deforestation are putting drastic pressure on water security in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Despite this, the spatial and temporal variability in streamflow responses to these drivers remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we used the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to quantify streamflow trends from 1981 to 2018 in 25 catchments, and we applied a Budyko-based elasticity framework, considering the impact of potential evapotranspiration (E0), precipitation (P), and catchment characteristics (omega) to attribute these trends. Results showed that six catchments- Gumara, Azuari, Koga, Megech, Main Beles, and Rib-exhibited statistically significant rise in annual streamflow, with rates ranging from 3.5 to 10.5 mm year- 1. In contrast, catchments such as Dura and Upper Rib showed decreasing streamflow trend despite rising precipitation, indicating complex hydroclimatic interactions. Elasticity of streamflow to P (epsilon p) ranged from 0.60 to 0.83. In contrast, elasticity to Eo(epsilon Eo), and omega (epsilon omega) ranged from -0.40 to -0.17, and -0.48 to -0.11, respectively. Upstream catchments-such as Gelgel Abay and Gumara-exhibited higher sensitivity to climatic variability, as reflected in their coefficients. Generally, 67% of the observed streamflow variability was attributed to climate change, while catchment characteristics contributed to the remaining 33% of the streamflow variability, with distinct spatial differences. This conclusion shows the need for customized management approaches to address both shifts in climatic variables and changes in vegetation. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | WATER CONSERVATION ; LAND-USE ; VARIABILITY ; RUNOFF ; VEGETATION ; RAINFALL ; IMPACT ; COVER ; SOIL ; SENSITIVITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001745054500001 |
| 出版者 | ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221560]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Gondar, Inst Technol, Dept Hydraul & Water Resource Engn, POB 196, Gondar, Ethiopia 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eshete, Daniel G.,Zhang, Yongqiang,Xu, Zhenwu,et al. Combined effect of climate change and catchment characteristics on streamflow response in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2026,405:129682. |
| APA | Eshete, Daniel G.,Zhang, Yongqiang,Xu, Zhenwu,Li, Congcong,&Huang, Zhen.(2026).Combined effect of climate change and catchment characteristics on streamflow response in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,405,129682. |
| MLA | Eshete, Daniel G.,et al."Combined effect of climate change and catchment characteristics on streamflow response in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 405(2026):129682. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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