Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhu, Weiru1,2; Liang, Kang2 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-29 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | climate change compound drought endorheic basins extreme drought SPEI |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.70368 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | The Endorheic Basins of China (EBC), covering 39% of the national territory, are ecologically fragile and highly sensitive to climate variability, making drought a critical concern for regional water resources management and ecological security. Unlike most studies that focus solely on Northwest China, the EBC also encompass the northern Tibetan Plateau and the central-eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau, featuring more diverse and complex hydroclimatic conditions. Nevertheless, basin-wide drought research remains limited, often overlooking smaller zones within the EBC, particularly in relation to compound and extreme droughts. From both panoramic and subregional perspectives, this study systematically analyzes trends of wetting and drying and subregional compound droughts at non-event scales, as well as the characteristics of drought and extreme drought events at event scales, using China Meteorological Forcing Data for the historical period (1960-2024) and CMIP6 for the future period (2025-2100). The results indicate: (1) Six subregions are identified based on SPEI, with the dry-wet division predominantly governed by topography, while the boundaries progressively shift in response to enhanced radiative forcing. (2) The study area exhibits a pronounced drying trend that intensifies with increasing radiative forcing, with relatively low-altitude areas remaining persistently arid while high-altitude mountainous areas tend to become relatively wetter. (3) The frequency and intensity of regional compound droughts are projected to weaken in the future, but the risk of severe compound droughts remains higher than historical levels in most scenarios. (4) With increasing radiative forcing, droughts and extreme events occur less frequently, last longer, and show stronger spatial differentiation. (5) Atlantic, tropical Pacific, and Indian Ocean SST anomalies, together with elevation, jointly regulate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTREME DROUGHT ; MODEL ; EVENTS ; PERFORMANCE ; IMPACT ; ERROR ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001726831400001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221569]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liang, Kang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Weiru,Liang, Kang. Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2026,N/A. |
| APA | Zhu, Weiru,&Liang, Kang.(2026).Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,N/A. |
| MLA | Zhu, Weiru,et al."Integrated Analysis and Prediction of Drought in the Endorheic Basins of China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY N/A(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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