Urban expansion-induced cropland grain production potential loss in China: Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sheng, Shuangqing4,5; Zhang, Zhongqian3; Huang, Jinchuan1,2,5; Lu, Guoyang3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-04-22 |
| 卷号 | 557页码:148162 |
| 关键词 | Urban land expansion Cropland grain production potential Potential loss Intensity-loss typology Multi-scale geographically weighted regression Spatial heterogeneity Scenario simulation China |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148162 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Urban land expansion under rapid urbanization in China has exerted profound impacts on cropland and grain production potential. This study integrates 1980-2020 land use remote sensing data (CNLUCC) with cropland production potential datasets to construct a coupled framework of urban land expansion intensity (I-ULEC) and cropland grain production potential loss (CGPPL). A four-quadrant typology is applied to examine temporal evolution, spatial differentiation, and driving mechanisms, and to project potential impacts under a 2030 baseline scenario. Results indicate that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, urban expansion exhibited a phased trajectory of slow initiation-rapid intensification-gradual decline, with 2000-2010 representing the peak period. During this stage, cropland potential loss reached 1.16 & times; 10(7) t (0.136% of the concurrent potential), increasing 3.3-fold relative to 1990-2000, before declining to 6.35 & times; 10(6) t (0.075%) in 2010-2020. The cumulative loss over 40 years was similar to 2.475 & times; 10(7) t, equivalent to 0.29% of total potential, indicating persistent latent pressure. (2) High-intensity-high-potential loss areas were primarily located in the eastern coastal regions, North China Plain, and parts of Northeast China, Xinjiang, and Gansu, whereas low-intensity-low-potential loss areas were concentrated in central and western mountainous regions, reflecting selective occupation of high-quality cropland and structural spatial differentiation. (3) MGWR analysis demonstrated that I-ULEC, population density, economic development, transportation accessibility, and high-quality cropland proportion significantly and positively influenced CGPPL, whereas topographic factors imposed negative constraints in complex terrains. The strength and direction of these drivers varied across regional types. (4) The 2030 baseline scenario projects national cropland area slightly increasing to 1.78 & times; 10(6) km(2) and urban land to 7.72 & times; 10(4) km(2), with 3.93 & times; 10(4) km(2) of cropland encroachment (2.2% of 2020 cropland). Potential pressure in high-intensity-high-potential loss areas is predicted to rise by similar to 5%, remaining below historical peaks but highlighting priority regions for regulatory oversight. Overall, urban land expansion impacts on cropland are phased, structurally differentiated, and spatially heterogeneous. These findings suggest that land use planning and cropland protection policies should account for both expansion intensity and grain production potential, enabling differentiated management to safeguard food security while supporting sustainable urban development. |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001745774200001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221542]  |
| 专题 | 区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Jinchuan; Lu, Guoyang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Architecture & Civil Engn, Hong Kong 518057, Peoples R China; 4.China Agr Univ, Coll Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sheng, Shuangqing,Zhang, Zhongqian,Huang, Jinchuan,et al. Urban expansion-induced cropland grain production potential loss in China: Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2026,557:148162. |
| APA | Sheng, Shuangqing,Zhang, Zhongqian,Huang, Jinchuan,&Lu, Guoyang.(2026).Urban expansion-induced cropland grain production potential loss in China: Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,557,148162. |
| MLA | Sheng, Shuangqing,et al."Urban expansion-induced cropland grain production potential loss in China: Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 557(2026):148162. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。