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Future cropland loss from urban-rural construction land expansion in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xiong, Hailing3,4; Wang, Ziyi2,3; Sun, Jianfeng3; Li, Guangdong1,2,3
刊名HABITAT INTERNATIONAL
出版日期2026-06-01
卷号172页码:103805
关键词Construction land expansion Cropland loss Risk prediction Machine learning China
ISSN号0197-3975
DOI10.1016/j.habitatint.2026.103805
产权排序2
文献子类Article
英文摘要Rapid urbanization has substantially accelerated the expansion of urban-rural construction land and driven extensive land-use changes, posing important threats to cropland preservation and raising concerns about national food security in China. However, high-precision assessments of cropland loss risk resulting from construction land expansion remain scarce. Here, we quantified cropland loss dynamics from urban-rural construction land expansion (2005-2020) and identified dominant influencing factors. Using a 1-km resolution machine learning framework, we projected encroachment risks by 2035 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), incorporating volume control quotas derived from varying proportions of historical encroachment to simulate diverse policy interventions. Crucially, we aggregated these grid-level simulations to the county scale to reveal regional risk clustering and inform differentiated governance. We found that cropland was the primary source of construction land expansion, accounting for approximately 84.68% of total growth. The most influential factors were GDP, historical encroachment proportion and built-up land proportion, emphasizing the role of spatial path dependence in shaping land-use transitions. Future areas at very-high-risk and high-risk of cropland loss are projected to be concentrated in major plains, including the North China Plain, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, and the Northeast Plain. The risk distribution follows a near-pyramidal structure, with very-high-risk zones comprising approximately 10.39-11.88% of total cropland. Notably, SSP2-4.5 is projected to have the smallest average risk of cropland loss among three SSP-RCPs. Future encroachment occurs around major urban systems in BeijingTianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region, Shandong, Henan, Xi'an and Chongqing. Counties with both large encroached cropland areas and high encroachment ratios are concentrated on the southeastern side of the Hu Huanyong Line. These projections offer valuable insights for land-use planning and support policy efforts to reconcile urban-rural construction land expansion with cropland protection.
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WOS研究方向Development Studies ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001741313000001
出版者PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/221556]  
专题区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Li, Guangdong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, A11,Datun Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;
4.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Dept Geog, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China;
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xiong, Hailing,Wang, Ziyi,Sun, Jianfeng,et al. Future cropland loss from urban-rural construction land expansion in China[J]. HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,2026,172:103805.
APA Xiong, Hailing,Wang, Ziyi,Sun, Jianfeng,&Li, Guangdong.(2026).Future cropland loss from urban-rural construction land expansion in China.HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,172,103805.
MLA Xiong, Hailing,et al."Future cropland loss from urban-rural construction land expansion in China".HABITAT INTERNATIONAL 172(2026):103805.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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