The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huang, Zhenyu2,3; Duan, Qianwen4; Jin, Jizhong1; Tan, Minghong2,3; Wang, Xue2; Xin, Liangjie2; Li, Xiubin2 |
| 刊名 | LAND USE POLICY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 164页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Cropland abandonment Mountainous areas Food productivity Spatial differences |
| ISSN号 | 0264-8377 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951 |
| 英文摘要 | Accelerated urbanization in China has prompted sustained population outflow from mountainous regions, intensifying cropland abandonment and threatening food security. Using a Random Forest model, this study analyzed the influencing factors behind cropland abandonment in China's mountainous areas from 2000 to 2020. Multiple data sources and SSP-RCP scenarios were integrated to project abandonment patterns and associated losses in food productivity through 2050. The findings indicate an abandonment rate of 18.7 % during this period and show marked spatial variation. The rate was associated with higher cropland fragmentation, irregular shape, and poor connectivity. Under the high-forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario, the abandonment rate may rise to 36.8 % by 2050, which could reduce national food productivity by 11.3 %. Notably, high-productivity croplands in these areas are being lost at an accelerating pace, with the abandonment rate projected to increase from 5.1 % in 2020 to 17.6 % by 2050. This study provides a scientific foundation for understanding abandonment processes and formulating more targeted cropland protection and food security strategies. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[42361144881] ; ESRC South Coast Doctoral Training Partnership[ES/P000673/1] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001678329800001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://119.78.100.204/handle/2XEOYT63/42829]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院计算技术研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Tan, Minghong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Comp Technol, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Southampton SO17 1BJ, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Zhenyu,Duan, Qianwen,Jin, Jizhong,et al. The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050[J]. LAND USE POLICY,2026,164:13. |
| APA | Huang, Zhenyu.,Duan, Qianwen.,Jin, Jizhong.,Tan, Minghong.,Wang, Xue.,...&Li, Xiubin.(2026).The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050.LAND USE POLICY,164,13. |
| MLA | Huang, Zhenyu,et al."The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050".LAND USE POLICY 164(2026):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：计算技术研究所
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