Identifying Sensitive Areas for Targeted Observations to Improve Indian Ocean Dipole Predictions Using a Coupled CNOP Approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Feng, Rong2; Duan, Wansuo2,3; Hu, Junya1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-01-13 |
| 卷号 | 131期号:1页码:17 |
| ISSN号 | 2169-9275 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025JC023420 |
| 通讯作者 | Duan, Wansuo(duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | This study employs the coupled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (C-CNOP) method, which incorporates initial coupling uncertainties, to identify sensitive areas of targeted observations for positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Results show that the initial errors most likely to yield large prediction uncertainties of IOD events are mainly concentrated in sea temperatures near the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean (IO_Temp: 70-110 m depth, 5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 85 degrees E-105 degrees E) and western Pacific (PO_Temp: 120-160 m depth, 5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 130 degrees E-150 degrees E), as well as zonal winds (UWind), exhibiting an east-west dipole pattern over the tropical Indo-western Pacific. Through sensitivity experiments-designed to assess the impact of initial uncertainties in different areas on IOD predictions while bypassing the assimilation process and avoiding initial shock effects-we find that prediction uncertainties are more sensitive to initial errors in the UWind area than in the IO_Temp and PO_Temp areas, demonstrating a stronger impact on forecast skill, particularly in winter and summer. Further analysis demonstrated that the IO_Temp & PO_UWind coupled area involving the eastern Indian Ocean subsurface temperature and western Pacific zonal winds, exhibits greater sensitivity than the UWind area alone, emerging as the most sensitive area of positive IOD events. This key area highlights both the Pacific's remote influence and the crucial role of local ocean on IOD development. These results underscore the critical role of coupled initialization in IOD predictability, offering a theoretical basis for advancing coupled data assimilation. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE MODELS ; PART I ; KALMAN FILTER ; PREDICTABILITY ; DYNAMICS ; ERROR ; VARIABILITY ; ATMOSPHERE ; BARRIER ; IMPACT |
| 资助项目 | National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42330111] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42475060] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42450178] |
| WOS研究方向 | Oceanography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001661306300001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/204574]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Duan, Wansuo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Earth Syst Numer Modeling & Applicat, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Nanjing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,Hu, Junya. Identifying Sensitive Areas for Targeted Observations to Improve Indian Ocean Dipole Predictions Using a Coupled CNOP Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,2026,131(1):17. |
| APA | Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,&Hu, Junya.(2026).Identifying Sensitive Areas for Targeted Observations to Improve Indian Ocean Dipole Predictions Using a Coupled CNOP Approach.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS,131(1),17. |
| MLA | Feng, Rong,et al."Identifying Sensitive Areas for Targeted Observations to Improve Indian Ocean Dipole Predictions Using a Coupled CNOP Approach".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 131.1(2026):17. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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